[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Inflation pressure rose slightly, futures retreated, and U.S. stocks turned to wait and see before the opening high (2025.08.29)

Conclusion first, inflation reading is imminent, futures are lower, and pre-market risk appetite is cooling

After the major U.S. stock index reversed its closing high the previous day, the market focus tonight in Taiwan time was on the July PCE inflation report. Futures markets fell simultaneously, and pressure on technology stocks increased slightly. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones futures each fell about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 0.5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond rose slightly, oil and gold futures fell, and Bitcoin fell back to about $110,000. Before the market, individual stocks fluctuated significantly in the semiconductor and PC chains, and investors turned to wait and see between high-end evaluations and inflation reconfirmation.

Inflation observation, core PCE estimates rise slightly, becoming the last clue before decision-making

PCE's annual growth rate forecast for July was flat at 2.6%, and core PCE's annual growth rate forecast rose to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones News. The data was released at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time and was the last key price indicator before the Federal Reserve Board meeting on September 16 - 17. The core PCE is an important yardstick for policymakers to assess whether inflation is close to the 2% target. If the reading value rises slightly, the risk of fluctuations in growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rate expectations and term spreads will increase.

Futures trend, technological pressure is slightly greater than value stocks

After the S & P 500 and Dow Jones hit new highs the previous day and the Nasdaq approached historical highs, the three major futures before the market retreated today, with the index period with higher technology weight lagging behind. Yields are rising while gold and oil are weak, indicating that funds have increased their cash positions before the data is released and prefer to reduce exposure in the short term to wait for direction.

Economic foundation, the second quarter GDP revision shows that domestic demand and investment momentum remain stable

The annualized GDP growth of the United States in the second quarter was revised upwards to 3.3%, higher than the previous initial value of 3.0% and market expectations of 3.1%. "Private final sales", which reflect private demand, have been revised upwards from 1.2% to 1.9%, indicating that the resilience of consumption and private investment momentum is still there. Even in the face of tariff uncertainty, both the physical and financial aspects maintain positive pulses, helping to buffer the impact of monthly price fluctuations on risky assets.

AI focus, Huida customer concentration triggers discussion

Nvidia(NVDA)'s earnings for the last quarter were better than expected, but its share price fell slightly by 0.3%. The market is more concerned about its customer structural risks. According to the latest documents, the two major customers together accounted for 39% of revenue in the second quarter, and the issue of concentration is heating up. However, the company is still optimistic about its subsequent operating outlook, which has benefited other chip factories such as Broadcom and Micron Technology. Technology stocks are highly sensitive to changes in inflation and yield rates tonight despite high-end evaluations.

Individual stocks change, Dell Technology's financial forecast earnings fall short of expectations and impact stock prices

Dell Technologies(Dell) fell about 6% in pre-market trading. The company forecast a median third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.45, below market expectations of $2.49. Although the second-quarter report card and third-quarter revenue, full-year revenue and profit outlook were all better than market estimates, the more conservative profit margin outlook has become a source of pressure; the stock price has still maintained an increase of about 16% since the beginning of the year, and the pre-market correction reflects increased demand for profit momentum verification.

Semiconductor supply chain, Maiwell Technology's revenue outlook falls short of consensus

Marvell Technology(MRVL) fell about 14% in pre-market trading. The company's adjusted EPS for the second quarter was US$0.67, and revenue was US$2.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58%, both in line with market expectations. However, the median revenue range of US$2.06 billion in the third quarter was lower than the market consensus of US$2.10 billion, suppressing stock price performance. Stock prices have fallen by about 30% since the beginning of the year, and the market has focused on signals that AI-related demand has shifted from rapid expansion to a more normal pace.

Media and Sports, YouTube TV continues to retain Fox content to reduce the risk of outage

Alphabet's (GOOGL) YouTube TV has reached a contract extension with Fox(FOXA). Financial terms have not been disclosed. NFL and American college football rights will continue on the platform, which is a positive message for viewers and advertisers during the fall sports season. Alphabet fell about 1% before the market, while Fox changed little. This case reduces the risk of black screens during the sports season and is of indicative significance to the bargaining dynamics between streaming distribution and traditional TV networks.

In the international market, Asian stocks were mixed and European stocks fell slightly

Asia-Pacific stock markets were divided in early trading, with Japanese stocks weakening amid slowing core CPI growth in Tokyo, as funds assessed the impact of price cooling and policy orientation. In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell slightly by about 0.2%. Demand for hedging in the region was not strong, waiting for the direction given by U.S. inflation data.

Interest rates and bulk, US bond yields rise, gold and oil pressure are under pressure

The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose moderately, and the bond market's risk premium to the evening price report increased slightly. Oil and gold futures fell, reflecting the increasing relative attractiveness of US dollar assets and the rising environment of nominal interest rates. Commodity retractions will help keep inflation expectations under control, but in the short term, they will also suppress valuation support for energy and precious metals-related stocks.

Pre-market focus, data timing and stock sensitivity have attracted much attention

Before PCE's announcement at 8:30 p.m., market sentiment was biased towards downsize and high-volatility positions, especially for high-valuation technologies and non-essential consumption with high interest rate elasticity. If the reading falls near the consensus, funds may return to corporate fundamentals to be differentiated, and financial reports and industry information will become more dominant in the trend of individual stocks.

Seasonal factors, historically September was weak but fundamental resilience formed a constraint

According to historical statistics, September has always been a more challenging month for U.S. stocks. However, the current resilience of domestic demand and corporate investment, the continuation of the AI capital expenditure cycle, and the further clarification of the interest rate path have restricted the depth of index recessions. The pre-market retracement reflects more fine-tuning of positions before the data rather than a trend reversal.

Overseas themes, new energy fluctuations and policy uncertainty continue to be present

Orsted, a major offshore wind power company, has plunged more than 40% in recent months due to funding and project suspension issues. Recently, some securities firms have switched to buy ratings, indicating that industry evaluation has entered a revaluation period. Global policies, tariffs and geopolitical risks remain cross-asset background noises, which have a potential impact on capital risk-taking willingness and cross-market flows.

Trading rhythm, high consolidation and waiting for the signal to become the main axis

As the index rises and the evaluation rises, tonight's inflation reading is the key trigger point. The limited range of futures retractions and the simultaneous reaction of yields and commodities shows that the market is mainly "waiting and seeing first, then expressing its position." Investors focus on price changes in interest-rate sensitive stocks, the progress of financial testing of the semiconductor chain and liquidity indicators before the market, and wait for the data to be implemented before evaluating risk rewards.