[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] The sharp rise in interest rate cut expectations drives U.S. stocks to strengthen across the board (2025.08.23)
Bauer hinted that interest rates would be cut. The four major indices would rise, with Feixian and large-scale technologies leading the gains; solar energy and housing market chains strengthening. Zoom reported good news, Intuit and Workday were under pressure, crypto assets rebounded, yield rates fell, and the US dollar weakened.
The sharp rise in interest rate cuts has driven U.S. stocks to strengthen across the board
After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent a signal from Jackson Hole that "interest rate cuts may be appropriate", market risk appetite rebounded significantly, and the four major indexes rose all day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was provisionally reported at 45,692.24, up 2.02%; the S & P 500 Index was provisionally reported at 6,475.93, up 1.66%; the Nasdaq Composite Index was provisionally reported at 21,526.92, up 2.02%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was provisionally reported at 5,793.29, up 3.39%. Interactive capital flows turned to growth and interest-rate sensitive groups, and the market's gains were broad. Interest rate futures showed that the market's bet on a September interest rate cut has risen sharply, with traders estimating the probability to be close to 90%, pushing stocks to accelerate upward after noon.
Fei Ban led the team to attack chips and growth stocks into the main axis of the disk
Supported by the fall in yield rates and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, chips and large technology stocks have become the main driving forces. The fee half rose by more than 3%, and the high beta and AI beneficiary targets strengthened simultaneously. Among the seven heroes, Nvidia(NVDA) rose 1.89%, Tesla(TSLA) rose 5.60%, Apple(AAPL) rose 1.64%, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) rose 1.83%, Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT) rose 0.70%, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 3.60%, and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) rose 2.51%. Technology equity stocks, previously suppressed by doubts about AI trading, stabilized, expanding the index's rebound.
Interest rate-sensitive groups are advancing simultaneously, solar electric vehicles benefit builders
Interest rate-sensitive solar energy, electric vehicles and housing market chains have risen sharply, becoming the strongest theme on the market. Enphase Energy(ENPH) rose 9.28%, First Solar(FSLR) rose;Tesla(TSLA) rose 5.60% due to expected downward benefits in financing costs, and Rivian Automotive(RIVN) strengthened in the same direction. Building-related groups were also motivated, with Builders FirstSource(BLDR) rising 8.43%, D.R. Buying from Horton Construction (DHI) and Pulte Group (PHM) has emerged, indicating that the market is betting that a easing interest rate environment will help residential demand and new housing starts momentum.
Intraday trading momentum warmed up large weights and active trading in theme stocks
The bullish signal triggered the return of funds, and intraday volume was significantly warmer than in previous days. The trading focus was concentrated on large technology, semiconductors and interest-rate sensitive groups. Viewed from the market, covering buying in high-growth and cyclical stocks is more active, and the upswing in premium stocks drives the index higher. Energy stocks were neutral despite limited changes in oil prices, while defensive groups fell significantly behind the broader market. Overall, the trend of funds leaning towards risky assets is clear.
The Fed signals a long and short watershed, inflation risks are still highlighted
Bauer said that the baseline outlook and risk balance may require adjustment in the policy stance, and the market interprets the door to interest rate cuts in September. However, it also points out that the risk of inflation is still on the upward side, especially the tariff-related pressure is "clearly visible", indicating that decision-making will still rely on data rather than predetermined paths. This message stabilizes market confidence on the one hand and reminds that price pressures have not completely subsided on the other, allowing the coexistence of falling yields and strengthening stock markets to continue.
Profit earnings boost cloud communications Zoom benefits AI demand revised financial forecast
Zoom Video Communications(ZM) shares surged after earnings and revenue exceeded expectations and revised its full-year outlook. The company pointed out that AI has driven the increase in the need for corporate workflow and communication integration, driving the adoption rate of high-level solutions. The news echoes the main axis of today's market, highlighting that as funds return to growth stocks, fundamentals driven themes can amplify the elasticity of stock prices.
Weaker outlook dragged down corporate software financial success and Workday led the decline
Intuit (INTU) gave a outlook that fell short of analysts 'expectations, mainly due to weak demand for MailChimp marketing platform and TurboTax tax tax filing services. Its share price fell 4.11%, making it one of the worst performers among the S & P 500 components. Workday(WDAY) warned that spending by public agencies and education institutions is becoming more conservative, and its share price fell 3.59%. Against the background of rising risk appetite in the broader market, guidance from individual companies remains the key to driving stock price differentiation.
Tobacco industry weakened due to performance of competing products Philip Morris
China's peer RLX Technology(RLX) reported better-than-expected revenue. Thanks to strong e-cigarette sales, its U.S. listed share price rose, which relatively put pressure on Philip Morris International(PM). The incident highlighted the immediate impact of regional and product line competition on the evaluation of global tobacco stocks, and became another focus of intraday industry news today.
Raw materials and foreign exchange bond market align with risk appetite, gold rose, oil prices remained flat, bond yields fell
Amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts, gold futures climbed, while crude oil futures changed little. The decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields highlighted the repricing of interest rate paths by funds. The weakness of the dollar against the euro, pound and yen suggests that foreign exchange markets have reacted prematurely to policy shifts. The VIX panic index fell back, consistent with the stock market's upward risk-appetite environment.
Crypto assets rebound, Ethereum led gains and drove trading platform stocks to strengthen
While expectations of interest rate cuts push up risky assets, cryptocurrencies have simultaneously strengthened. Ethereum has surged by about 8.6%, Bitcoin has risen by about 2.7%, and Solana and XRP have risen by about 4%. Related concept stocks rose, with Coinbase(Coinbase, COIN) rising about 6.6%, Robinhood(Robinhood, HOOD) rising about 4.2%, covering intraday losses caused by AI trading noise earlier this week.
Strong and weak stocks clearly distinguish interest rates and drive long positions, while fundamentals determine the outcome
Strong stocks on the market included Enphase Energy(ENPH) up 9.28%, Celanese(CE) up 8.61%, and Builders FirstSource(BLDR) up 8.43%, driven by downward expectations in interest rates and a recovery in industrial cycles. In contrast, Intuit (INTU) fell 4.11% and Workday(WDAY) fell 3.59% reflected a conservative outlook. Today's trend shows that policy signals drive the direction of capital, while company-level operating guidance is still a direct catalyst for stock prices.
Follow-up observations focus on data and interviews with officials to confirm policy paths and risk balance
The three major intraday index futures and spot prices moved in unison. The short-term focus of the market returned to subsequent inflation and employment data, as well as talks by Federal Reserve officials to further clarify the conditions for interest rate cuts. The inflationary pressure caused by tariffs mentioned by Bauer reminds investors of the risks of price stickiness. Although political noise has increased, it has limited impact on immediate pricing. Overall, rising expectations of interest rate cuts have given support to risky assets, and the focus of the market will continue to be on the tug of war between policy signals and corporate fundamentals.
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