Angel Talavera of the Oxford Institute of Economics reported online that imposing a 30% tariff on EU imports into the United States could put the euro zone on the verge of recession. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on EU goods from 10% to 30% starting August 1 if the two sides failed to reach a trade deal. Talavera said that may be Trump's negotiating strategy, but based on the agency's calculations, if high tariffs are implemented, the eurozone's collective growth rate could fall by 0.3 percentage points in the next two years. Under these circumstances, the euro zone economy will stagnate for the next few quarters and be close to a sustained recession. "The risk that tariffs will exceed our baseline assumption of 10 percent has now increased significantly," he added.