[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Interest rate cuts are expected to be set, technology supports the market and returns to June (2025.09.13)
Expectations for interest rate cuts have strengthened and technology rights have supported the market, which means that Daoqiong will go higher and retract; vaccines and Netcom will be under pressure, and WBD and ENTG will strengthen. The market waited and saw before the meeting, and there were still many weekly lines. Funds focus on high-liquidity leaders and pay attention to Federal Reserve interest rates and forward-looking guidance.
Expectations for interest rate cuts have been set, technology supports the market and returns.
U.S. stocks were divided intraday trends, with funds remaining on the sidelines before the Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily reported at 45,942.03, down 0.36%, the S & P 500 Index was temporarily reported at 6,590.9, up 0.05%, the Nasdaq Index was temporarily reported at 22,139.81, up 0.44%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily reported at 6,001.56, up 0.10%. The strong side of large technology offset the fall in value and defense stocks, and the weekly lines of the three major indices are still heading for gains of more than 1%.
Large-scale technologies led the gains, driving risk appetite back.
Tesla (Tesla, TSLA) continued its strength, rising 6.68% from 393.44 in intraday trading, hitting a near-month high; Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT)512.11 rose 2.22%, Apple(Apple, AAPL)233.25 rose 1.40%, Nvidia(NVDA)177.56 rose 0.22%, Amazon (Amazon, AMZN)228.53 fell 0.62%, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META)755.02 rose 0.55%, and Alphabet(Alphabet, GOOGL)241.54 rose 0.32%. Most of the equity stocks rose, making a positive contribution to the index. The trading momentum was the most eye-catching among the technology and electric vehicle groups.
Pressure on vaccines and Netcom has become a headwind on the market.
The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration plans to link multiple child deaths to the COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccine stocks weakened in response, with Moderna(MRNA) falling 6.93%, BioNTech (BNTX) falling more than double digits, and Pfizer(Pfizer, PFE) also falling about 3%. At the same time, Arista Networks(ANET) fell 7.18%, and the high-valued Netcom community suffered profit-taking, dragging down the performance of some growth stocks.
Entertainment and semiconductor materials are stronger to display the theme rotation.
Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD) rose 17.5%, with active intraday buying and significantly larger trading volume, becoming a highlight of the media and entertainment community; semiconductor materials supplier Entegris(ENTG) rose 5.09%, giving a boost to supply chain stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose slightly, with AI and Data Center related stocks having different performances, but the overall pattern remained relatively strong.
Small stock retractions indicate a preference for large weights.
Small stocks are relatively under pressure, market funds continue to concentrate in leading stocks with high liquidity and high profit visibility, transfer and defense stocks are mixed, and financial and energy performance is flat. The disk structure shows that growth and quality factors are dominant, and the weekly momentum is still high but the strength is slowing down.
Weaker consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations strengthen interest rate cuts bets.
The initial September value of Michigan showed that the consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, down from 58.2 in the previous month. Long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, and concerns about the impact of tariffs grew. In line with the recent weakening of employment data, initial unemployment benefits are close to a four-year high, and only more than 20,000 new jobs were created last month. There are obvious signs of cooling the economy. CME Group tools show that the market has a more than 90% chance of cutting interest rates by one yard, and bets that the cumulative probability of three yards before the end of the year is about 75%.
After the index reached a high level, it entered the pre-session digestion period.
After the collective high the previous day, the main indices fluctuated at the high end, and investors waited for interest rate decisions and forward-looking guidance. At this stage, funds prefer weight stocks with fundamental support. Theme stocks adopt the approach of eliminating the weak and retaining the strong, and the market is dominated by structural rotation.
Futures and volatility are stable and wait and see before the meeting.
Stock index futures operate in a narrow range, the VIX panic index remains low-level and volatile, and overall risk appetite is stable. U.S. government bond yields have been adjusted in a narrow range, with the ten-year yield hovering in the near term. The moderate performance on the interest rate side has helped maintain stock market evaluations, but the sensitivity to high-valuation groups remains high.
The trading volume distribution highlights the main line and risk margin.
Tesla and Warner Bros. Discovery both saw significant increases in volume, and price momentum strengthened simultaneously;Moderna and Arista Networks both weakened volume and price under negative pressure and evaluation pressure. Intraday funds have a clear preference for AI supply chains and platform-based technologies, and still adopt conservative responses to cyclical and policy-sensitive groups.
The rise in crypto assets reflects a rebound in risk appetite.
Bitcoin rose slightly, with Ethereum and Solana leading the gains. XRP and BNB also rose. The simultaneous recovery of digital assets strengthened the market's sensitivity to easing expectations, but the short-term linkage with U.S. stocks was still dominated by emotions.
The theme of new shares drives the popularity of the secondary market but has limited impact.
It has been reported that there are too many opening inquiries for multiple IPOs, including crypto trading platforms and new economic and traditional industries such as public transportation services and industrial services. In the short term, it will help increase trading activity. However, the marginal impact on the weight index is limited. The main variables still return to interest rate policy and economic data.
The weekly line remained high but the short-term high-end shocks remained unchanged.
The three major indexes are expected to close at more than 1% this week. Dow Jones is expected to end its consecutive weekly decline. The S & P and Nasdaq Index performed better than the average of recent months. However, before the implementation of the Federal Reserve Commission's resolutions and post-meeting statements, the market tended to consolidate in a range and rotate themes to cope with uncertainty, and overall risk control remained the main axis of the session.
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