[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] High-end shocks after interest rate cuts, PCE and closing risks affect the opening trend (2025.09.22)

High-end pullback is the main focus, and risk avoidance is heating up to suppress risk appetite

U.S. stock futures fell slightly late on Monday in Taiwan time, continuing the consolidation atmosphere after hitting a high last week. The market focus is on the U.S. PCE inflation data that debuted on Friday and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. The gold price continues to hit record highs, indicating that demand for safe haven is heating; at the same time, the weakening of crypto assets and several individual stock events have affected pre-market sentiment. Overall, investors 'first complete trading turnover after the interest rate cut is on the sidelines, and the rotation speed of weights and themes may accelerate.

Futures fall from record highs, ten-year bond yields fall, gold prices rise

The S & P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures fell about 0.3% in pre-market trading, pulling back after the indices all hit all-time highs last week. The ten-year U.S. bond yield fell back to about 4.13%, reflecting that repricing on the interest rate side is still in progress after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. Gold prices rose about 1.4% intraday to a new high of US$3,760 per ounce, and increased risk aversion restrained pre-market assessments of risky assets.

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, wait-and-see intensifies, PCE becomes this week's guide

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 1 yard last week, long-term bond yields rose instead of falling, highlighting the market's divergent interpretations of the economic and fiscal environment. The PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, will be released at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time on Friday. The market is generally concerned about whether the annual growth is close to the forecast of 2.8%. If the results are higher than estimates, confidence in the path of interest rate cuts and stock market evaluation may put pressure on. The placement of data will also affect the strength of stocks, especially rate-sensitive growth stocks and defensive assets.

The shadow of the U.S. government shutdown is heating up, and short-term policy uncertainty is rising

The new fiscal year is about to start, and the progress of negotiations on short-term spending bills affects investment sentiment. If the risk of a shutdown increases, it may affect the pace of economic data release and the outlook for federal spending, causing disturbance to risky assets. Although historical experience shows that short-term closures have limited impact on corporate fundamentals, their short-term impact on market fluctuations and capital trends cannot be ignored.

International market differences, H‑1B fee issues suppress technological sentiment

Asian stock markets were divided on Monday, with India's Nifty IT index plummeting nearly 3%, reflecting uncertainty caused by President Trump's message to charge an annual fee of US$100,000 for H‑1B work visas; European stocks fell slightly last Friday, with Europe's Stoxx 600 index closing down 0.16%. Global sensitivity to the U.S. economy and policies has increased, causing fluctuations in overseas markets to also cause emotional spillover before the U.S. stock market.

Bitcoin weakens, related stocks are under pressure before the market

Bitcoin fell below US$113,000 in early trading, falling back from its overnight high, while Etai and Solana also fell. Crypto concept stocks were simultaneously under pressure, with MicroStrategy(MSTR), Coinbase (COIN) and Riot Platforms(RIOT) each falling more than 2% in pre-market trading. The rising volatility of crypto assets has led to the marginal capital of high-beta technology and theme stocks.

New clues emerge in TikTok transactions, media asset participation attracts attention

President Trump said in an interview on Fox News over the weekend that Rupert and Rachlin Moddock may participate in a transaction arrangement for TikTok's operations in the United States, and that the United States and China continue to negotiate a new equity structure for the social platform. The market interprets that if U.S. media assets are introduced, the uncertainty of regulatory review may be partially alleviated. Related stocks were stronger before the market, with Fox Corporation(Fox, FOXA) up nearly 5%, and News Corp(News Corp., NWSA) up more than 2%, becoming the bright spot in early trading.

Dispute over painkiller risks heats up, Kenvue weakens before the market

The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration plans to issue warnings about acetaminophen and autism risks for pregnant women. Kenvue (KVUE) responded that existing research does not support a link between the two, but the report triggered a reassessment of the market's regulatory risks of consumer health products. Kenvue fell nearly 5% before the market. Consumer necessities groups were affected by the risk of policy labeling, and short-term volatility may increase.

Weight loss drug theme continues to heat up, Pfizer purchases and boosts medical attention

Against the backdrop of high demand for weight-loss and metabolic disease therapies, Pfizer(PFE) announced the acquisition of a New York-based weight-loss drug developer for $47.50 per share in cash with an additional $22.50 per share mileage. The Financial Times estimates the total transaction value of approximately $7.3 billion. The transaction is another example of large pharmaceutical companies strengthening their growth pipelines. Pfizer rose about 1.5% before the market, driving biotech pharmaceutical stocks to become the focus of pre-market attention.

Interest rates and gold prices diverge, and funds are torn between growth and defense

The decade-long decline in bond yields and the high gold price have occurred simultaneously, indicating that the market is on the one hand, holding a wait-and-see attitude towards economic resilience and the path of interest rate cuts, and on the other hand, improving its allocation to combat uncertainty. If PCE meets expectations, the evaluation support of technology and high-quality growth stocks is expected to remain; if the data is hot, the relative attractiveness of defensive stocks, stable cash flow targets and precious metals-related assets may increase. In the short term, the divergence between the fall in futures and the high gold price highlights the rapid switching of funds between risk and risk avoidance.

Focus on today's pre-market observation, data and policy messages drive fluctuations

There was a lack of heavyweight data earlier this week, and the market focused on the progress of fiscal negotiations from Washington, news on TikTok transactions, and the spillover impact of fluctuations in crypto assets on market risk appetite. Friday's PCE inflation reading is key and will provide updated verification of inflation trends after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. Overall, pre-market signals show that the high-end volatility pattern has not changed. Investors continue to adjust positions based on data and policies, focusing on stock rotation and the short-term performance of event-driven targets.