[U.S. Stocks Before the market] Government shutdown and weak employment strengthen interest rate cuts bets, risk appetite supports opening sentiment (2025.10.02)

Bad news turned into support, with interest rate cuts leading pre-market sentiment

U.S. stocks have continued their resilience amid the government shutdown and weakening employment data. Investors are betting that the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October have increased, driving risk appetite to stabilize the pre-opening atmosphere. The S & P 500 closed at a high above 6,700 points in the previous trading day, and the Asian market strengthened simultaneously. Before the evening opening of Taiwan time, market attention focused on the progress of the government shutdown, interpretation of employment signals and AI supply chain news.

Government shutdown continues, historical experience suppresses fluctuations

The U.S. government has been shut down since Wednesday, predicting that market bets will last for nearly two weeks, similar to the average length since 1990. Historical statistics show that the S & P 500 rose by an average of about 1% in the week before and after the shutdown, which helped ease short-term mood fluctuations. The Senate failed to pass provisional appropriations and political uncertainty was high in the short term, but the stock market responded relatively restrained, focusing on the interest rate path and corporate fundamentals.

Employment data weakens, and the Fed's trade-offs increase

The ADP report showed that private enterprise employment fell by 32,000 in September, far less than the market's original estimate of an increase of 45,000. As the official non-farm payrolls report is delayed by administrative procedures and cannot be released on Friday, the Fed's weight on ADP and high-frequency employment signals may increase. The trading interpretation is biased towards weak data to increase interest rates. The market is betting that the probability of a rate cut in October will be higher. However, the historical out-of-sync nature of ADP and official data also reminds the interpretation to retain flexibility.

Global stock markets endorse, and U.S. stocks tend to wind

Driven by technology and memory themes, Asian stocks generally rose, with South Korea's KOSPI leading the gains due to the strength of Samsung and SK Hynix. In European stocks, the Stoxx 600 rose and the market's response to expectations of a slight rebound in eurozone inflation in September was stable. The resilience of overseas risk assets provides a positive reference for U.S. stocks before the market, and the funding layout still centers around large technology and AI-related supply chains.

Focus on chip supply chain, news of Taiwan's refusal to split production capacity attracts attention

On the Taiwan side, negotiators said they had not discussed the "split chip production" proposal with the White House and had rejected it. Market interpretation and supply chain decisions still put efficiency and safety first. This attitude helps maintain the predictability of cross-border semiconductor production capacity allocation, has limited impact on the established division of labor in the supply chain between Taiwan and the United States, and has increased the attention of relevant equipment and materials manufacturers.

AI memory expansion takes shape, Samsung and Hynix join hands with OpenAI

OpenAI announced a partnership with Samsung and SK Hynix on the Stargate program to increase the supply of advanced memory. Memory is one of the bottlenecks in AI training and inference. The expansion signal supports high-frequency and wide-bandwidth memory prices and shipping momentum expectations. Related themes spilled into the Asian market, driving Korean stocks to strengthen. Improved supply will also help optimize the overall cost structure of cloud and AI accelerators, which will have positive implications for data center capital expenditures in the long run.

AI capital fever continues, OpenAI secondary market transactions highlight confidence

OpenAI completed approximately US$6.6 billion in employee and old stock resale transactions, with a valuation of approximately US$500 billion. The size of the share release below the approval limit is internally seen as a sign of confidence in the prospects. Although it is not a public offering company, this transaction has still become the trend of AI ecosystem funds, indicating that private equity and secondary liquidity are still strong in taking over leading assets.

New trends in wafer foundry competition, Intel's negotiation of ultra-micro foundry sparks imagination

Intel(INTC) was reportedly discussing using Intel's foundry services with Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), and Intel's share price rose by about 7%. If the cooperation takes shape, it may reshape the advanced process OEM landscape, which also reflects the increased strategic flexibility between IDM and fabless factories. However, production capacity nodes, yield and cost conditions are still key variables, and the market remains on the sidelines of the actual implementation timetable.

The subject matter is extended, and companies related to encryption assets are taking frequent actions

The planned expansion of Trump-related cryptocurrency companies shows that crypto assets still have thematic popularity despite the uncertain regulatory and liquidity environment. Short-term price elasticity is high, and news is biased towards theme-driven in the face of pre-market sentiment, intertwined with the main line of interest rates and liquidity.

Review of strong stocks in the third quarter, volatility risks of AI small and medium-sized stocks rise

Most of the stocks that doubled in the third quarter focused on AI and high-growth themes, but the LSEG consensus price target showed that some targets had deviated from fundamental visibility, and subsequent performance was easily affected by financial reports and guidance. The balanced allocation of pre-market funds between large-scale weights and small and medium-sized growth has become the focus of observation, and the differentiation during the performance verification period may increase.

Interest rates are linked to foreign exchange markets, and the trend of the US dollar and policy decisions are related to each other

Institutional economists pointed out that the government shutdown and fiscal uncertainty could put pressure on the dollar and affect the direction of the Fed's October interest rate decision. If risk appetite continues, attention should be paid to the impact of a weakening US dollar on the exchange rate of multinational companies; conversely, safe-haven reflows may also increase volatility. In the absence of new high-frequency U.S. macro data before the market, fine-tuning of exchange rate and interest rate expectations is easier to reflect through futures to the opening price.

Focus on the key points before the market, and policy and supply chain news dominate the short-term rhythm

During the short window of official non-agricultural releases, the market became more sensitive to ADP and high-frequency employment signals. The political side pays attention to the progress of the shutdown negotiations and the congressional schedule; the industrial side focuses on the expansion of AI memory production, Intel OEM developments, and the extended impact of Taiwan's supply chain policy signals on cross-border capacity allocation. Overall, the three major themes of interest rate cut expectations, AI capital expenditures and government shutdown intersect and affect pre-market sentiment. The stock rotation may focus on large technology, memory groups and some theme stocks.