[U.S. stocks before the market] The risk of a government shutdown is high, and futures are lower on the monthly line without losing momentum (2025.09.30)

The shadow of the government shutdown widens, and market sentiment turns conservative

US stock futures were slightly lower before the opening of Taiwan time tonight, with Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each down about 0.2%, mainly due to the rising risk of a US government shutdown. However, the S & P 500 has maintained its upward trajectory for the month, moving towards a five-month close. Among safe-haven assets, gold futures rose to an intraday high of $3,840 an ounce before retreating, with the yield on 10-year U.S. debt holding steady at 4.14%. Crude oil continued to weaken, West Texas crude oil futures reported $62.90 a barrel, down about 1% a day, continuing the sharp decline of the previous day. The market is concerned about two major variables. One is whether the closure will come true, which will delay the release of important economic data. The other is the impact of corporate information such as Nike(Nike, NKE) earnings report, Alphabet (GOOGL) and YouTube litigation settlement, and ExxonMobil(ExxonMobil, XOM) layoffs on stock rotation.

Data timing may be delayed, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve Committee's decision interpretation

If the U.S. government shuts down, employment and inflation reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other units may be delayed, causing the Federal Reserve to face higher uncertainty under a data-based decision-making framework. The shutdown was triggered at 12:01 noon on Wednesday in Taiwan time. It was due to the unsuccessful meeting between leaders of the two parties and U.S. President Trump yesterday and the Senate had not yet reached an agreement on temporary funding. The Democratic Party pushed for the restoration of health insurance subsidies in the bill, and the procedural threshold still requires cross-party votes. If it succeeds, it will be the first time since the five-week lockout from 2018 to 2019. In the short term, investors need to pay attention to the impact of empty data windows on interest rate expectation curves and volatility.

AI led the rebound the previous day, and the momentum cooled down before the opening of today

On Monday, U.S. stocks closed higher for the second consecutive day driven by AI weights. Nvidia(NVDA) rebounded to boost Nasdaq's performance, but overnight futures showed that momentum cooled before the opening of today. Bitcoin was quoted at about $113,000, below its overnight high of $114,800. Horizontal interest rates help suppress valuation pressure, but increased policy uncertainty makes risk appetite more cautious. While the downward trend in energy prices has put pressure on energy stocks, it has also created a margin for transportation and chemical costs, and the market has become divided at the industrial level.

There are mixed external signals, China's manufacturing industry is picking up but still contracting

Asian stocks were divided this morning. European stocks rose slightly by 0.18% the day before, with large pharmaceutical companies fighting against declines. China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8, higher than expectations and hitting a high since March. It is still below the expansion threshold of 50, indicating that the economic downturn is slowing down. External demand and commodity price trends are intertwined, combined with the trend of the US dollar and the decline in crude oil. The marginal impact on global risky assets remains to be seen.

Nike's after-hours earnings report debuts, operating rollover verification is under review

Nike(Nike, NKE) is expected to announce its earnings report early Wednesday morning, Taiwan time. The market is concerned about the progress of operating turnover and inventory health. Visible Alpha estimates that the company's adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter was US$0.26, a decrease of more than 60% from the same period last year, and revenue was approximately US$11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 5%. Nike's share price rebounded from its low point during the year, but pre-market shares fluctuated around US$70. As a constituent of Dow Jones, its financial forecast and management's guidance on demand and gross profit are indicative of the sentiment of sports and apparel stocks.

Platform litigation negative clarified, Alphabet's pre-market reaction was dull

YouTube and Trump reached a $24.5 million settlement over a dispute over account suspension after the January 6, 2021 congressional incident, of which $22 million will be donated to the Trust for the National Mall on Trump's behalf for the construction of White House venues. Previously, X and Meta Platforms(Meta, META) also reached separate settlements in similar lawsuits. Alphabet (GOOGL) did not change much before the market, and the incident had limited impact on fundamentals, but platform content governance and political risks are still part of the long-term investment narrative.

ExxonMobil launches layoffs and consolidations as oil prices plummets and consolidates

ExxonMobil(ExxonMobil, XOM) announced that it will lay off 2,000 people, or approximately 4% of its workforce, and consolidate multiple small offices into regional hubs. The company pointed out that the measures are part of organizational adjustments. Driven by concerns about OPEC+ supply increases and demand, oil prices have dropped significantly recently, and the energy industry has also gradually reduced manpower. ExxonMobil's share price fell slightly by less than 1% before the market. Investors will subsequently focus on the pace of capital expenditures, shareholder feedback policies and oil price elasticity on profits.

Industrial mergers and acquisitions and AI dynamics are frequent, and the popularity of the theme remains

In terms of market themes, Electronic Arts(EA)'s share price rose after it received news of a privatization transaction of approximately US$55 billion from Saudi Arabia's sovereign fund and public and private investors, and the valuation of the game industry and the M & A premium attracted attention. Anthropic has released a new model, Claude Sonnet 4.5. Industry benchmarks show it is leading the way in programming development capabilities and is expected to deepen the imagination of cloud and enterprise AI workload requirements. On the other hand, Etsy(Etsy, ETSY) has attracted attention for its cooperation with OpenAI's checkout function, showing that generative AI applications are extending from the cloud to e-commerce scenarios.

Semiconductor localization issues are heating up, and Taiwan's supply chain has attracted much attention

U.S. officials released a message that half of the chips used in the United States are made locally, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he would push Taiwan to work together to increase the proportion made in the United States. The policy continues to consider supply chain security and geographical risks, which has medium and long-term evaluation significance for Taiwan manufacturers 'overseas production capacity layout, cost structure and depreciation cycle. In the short term, the progress of relevant regulations and subsidy details remains the focus of observation.

Capital behavior will converge, and the decentralization effect may decline in stages.

In terms of institutional funds, the phenomenon of increased linkage between hedge funds and the stock market has been discussed, indicating that proactive strategies and the trend of weighted stocks are more consistent in periodic markets. When the market style focuses on AI and large weights, the correlation between individual stock volatility and index volatility increases, and the decentralization effect may diminish, putting forward higher requirements for risk management.

Technical signals are intertwined, and the short-term temperature of weighted stocks rises

In terms of technical observation, Intel's relative strength indicator shows a short-term heat, and market commentators believe that stock prices may be more sensitive to news and index fluctuations. Among the semiconductor community, Nvidia(NVDA) and Micron(MU) rebounded the previous day, reflecting the emotional support of AI and memory cycles. However, under policy and data uncertainties, the matching of energy and fundamental signals still needs to be continuously verified.

Focus on pre-market review and observation, with policy progress and energy technology leading the way

Overall, the main theme before the opening of the market tonight is still the risk of a government shutdown and its impact on the release schedule of economic data; stable yields, high gold shocks, and continued decline in oil prices constitute a cross-asset framework. At the individual stock level, Nike's (Nike, NKE) financial report debuted early Wednesday morning in Taiwan time. Alphabet (GOOGL) litigation settlement, ExxonMobil(XOM) organizational adjustment and energy price trends will affect the short-term performance of technology and energy stocks. If Congress does not break through the deadlock during the day in Taiwan time, fluctuations and volume energy after the opening of the market may be amplified. Investors pay attention to policy headlines and immediate changes guided by futures.