[U.S. Stocks Before the market] The government shutdown weakens data guidance, AI fever supports sentiment (2025.10.01)

market conclusion

The government shutdown has reduced the visibility of economic data, but risk sentiment has not deteriorated significantly, and investors are inclined to wait and see before the market. The break of the U.S. federal government funding bill has led to the shutdown, and the manpower of statistical agencies has been affected, making the waiting employment data this week unlikely to be released on time. However, in September, U.S. stocks showed resilience driven by AI themes, with Dow Jones reaching high prices and the S & P's monthly line rising. Before the opening of today's market, the mood was intertwined by two forces: prudence and support from technology stocks.

Impact of the government shutdown

The release of employment reports and statistics is at risk of being delayed. About 750,000 federal employees, including some at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, are on unpaid leave, and the market is concerned about whether this Friday's non-farm payrolls report will be delayed. If key labor market data is absent, the Fed and investors will lack immediate clues on labor in the short term, and fluctuations may turn dominated by inflation, corporate financial forecasts and financial conditions.

Policy evaluation focus

The Federal Reserve has become increasingly dependent on inflation and the financial environment. Under the empty window of official employment statistics, the tone of decision-making communication relies more on inflation trends, changes in interest rates and credit conditions, as well as enterprise-side demand and inventory standards. Market pricing has become more sensitive to short-term interest rates, and capital risk aversion and the trend of the US dollar have also become key variables affecting pre-market risk appetite.

AI theme continues

, Huida Chuanggao maintains the popularity of growth stocks. Nvidia(NVDA) shares hit a closing high, with a market value exceeding US$4.5 trillion. Many AI-related cooperation and investments were announced in September, and the mood continues to benefit. Meta Platforms(Meta, META) promotes the layout of AI infrastructure and frequently interacts with the cloud computing and model ecosystem chain, becoming a positive catalyst for technology equity stocks. Overall, the visibility of capital expenditures in the AI supply chain has become one of the multi-position pivots that overcome macro noise.

September trend exceeds seasonality

, the main index closed red on the monthly line. Historically, a decline is common in September, but the S & P 500 rose more than 3% this month, and the Dow Jones index hit a new high, indicating that funds are still willing to take risks despite the resilience of the economy and the generative AI investment cycle. Although facing the government shutdown and data gaps in the short term, the momentum at the monthly level provides certain confidence for the pre-market atmosphere.

Futures and interest rates

, attracted high attention before the opening but limited direction signals. The government shutdown has a short-term impact on fiscal expenditure schedules and public sector services. The market measures its indirect impact on corporate operations and consumer confidence. In the absence of key data, index futures are more sensitive to unexpected news, and changes in bond yields and the trend of the US dollar will be immediate indicators of risk appetite and stock rotation.

International market face

India stayed put and Asian stock markets were mixed. The Bank of India maintains its policy interest rate at 5.5%, believing that the effect of the June interest rate cut has yet to be transmitted, which is in line with external expectations. Asian stocks were divided in early trading. Japanese stocks fell back due to corporate climate surveys that fell short of expectations. Major European stock indexes generally closed higher on the eve of the night. Funds adjust their positions between differences in policy paces in different economies around the world, forming a pattern of both containment and support for the opening sentiment of U.S. stocks.

Energy M & A Trends

, Berkshire reported that it was evaluating the acquisition of Western petrochemical assets. The Wall Street Journal reported that Berkshire Hathaway(Berkshire, BRK.B) is negotiating to acquire Occidental Petroleum's petrochemical business for approximately US$10 billion, which, if completed, would be Berkshire's largest deal since 2022. The news highlights the trend of revaluation and consolidation of energy chain assets, and may also drive the repricing of relevant asset evaluations and capital expenditure planning.

Pharmaceutical policy variables

, Pfizer reached an agreement to cut prices in exchange for tariff exemptions. CNBC reported that Pfizer(PFE) agreed to lower drug prices in the United States in exchange for a three-year drug tariff exemption from the Trump administration, including continued investment in U.S. manufacturing. This move will help reduce the pressure on medical spending, but it also affects the gross profit and capacity allocation of the pharmaceutical industry. Investors are concerned about the price strategies of large pharmaceutical companies and the localization cost absorption in the supply chain.

Geo-risks persist

Europe's threat assessment of Russia escalates. Luxembourg's prime minister said Russia has become a long-term security threat to Europe, and EU officials said the current situation is a mixed war situation. Although it is not an immediate market driver, it helps support the medium-and long-term visibility of defense and information security-related budgets, and provides background support for energy supply and inflation risk premiums.

Stock Observation

, technology and energy have become the focus of long-term and long-term seesaw. Capital expenditures and cooperation news on AI-related equity stocks remain the main axis of sentiment; the energy chain is affected by mergers and acquisitions and oil price expectations; and health care is divided due to policy changes. Financial stocks are sensitive to interest rate curves and regulatory information. In an environment lacking high-frequency economic data, the trading rhythm may rely more on company guidance and pre-market news flow.

today's key

, pay attention to the liquidity and message premium under the data window. Uncertainty in statistical release caused by the government shutdown has made the market more dependent on corporate news, policy headlines and cross-market price signals. Investors use futures trends, government bond yields, US dollar index and raw material prices as mood thermometers; if the AI theme continues and there are no additional disturbances on the macro level, the market is expected to maintain a structural and strong rotating pattern.