[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Pre-market keywords of the day (2025.10.03)

The bullish momentum has not stopped. The three major indices all hit closing highs in the previous trading day. Pre-market sentiment continued to be high but focused on risk management. Investors continue to downplay the uncertainty of the U.S. government shutdown and the absence of employment data, with the market focusing on policy variables, the strength of AI equity stocks, the dynamics of mergers and acquisitions in electric vehicles and energy and chemicals, and the new tariff policies faced by pharmaceutical stocks. The overall risk appetite is still stable, but the trading rhythm has shifted to a structural market of "stock picking based on news".

The government's shutdown continues, and the data window has limited impact on risk sentiment. Before early trading in Taiwan time on Friday, the market was cautious but not panicked in assessing the economic impact on the second day of the shutdown. As the U.S. Senate adjourns on Yom Kippur and the federal government continues to shut down, financial officials have warned that growth momentum may be frustrated. However, the capital market's response has been stable, indicating that funds are more concerned about corporate fundamentals and the AI investment cycle.

Employment signals are divided, with a sharp drop in recruitment and a stable unemployment rate coexisting, and the labor market has shown a moderate cooling pattern of "low fire, low employment". Data from human resources consultant Challenger shows that the number of rehires has dropped by 58% year-to-date compared with the same period last year, hitting a low since 2009; indicators compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago show that the unemployment rate is about 4.34%, which is different from the official Labor Department statistics, but the direction highlights the slowdown of the labor market without disorder. In a data vacuum, investors use the performance of risky assets as an immediate thermometer.

Science and technology rights continue to carry the banner, AI chains become a safe haven for funds, and Huida and the semiconductor community are attracting attention. Nvidia(NVDA) hit another record high, benefiting from data center AI demand and ecosystem expansion;Intel(Intel, INTC)'s share price rebounded strongly in recent months, with a cumulative increase of about 50%. The market is concerned about the progress of its cooperation case and the implementation of its process roadmap. The relative strength of weighted technology stocks strengthens the overall index momentum, while at the same time making the market more sensitive to a single news.

The electric vehicle sector has warmed up, Tesla's annual increase in deliveries has attracted attention, and leading momentum has influenced supply chain evaluation. Tesla (TSLA) announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The market interprets production capacity and demand as maintaining resilience despite preferential and new product layout. Compared with China car manufacturer BYD delivered 393,060 vehicles in September, a decrease of 6% from the same period of the previous year, the first annual decline this year, indicating the divergence of prices and product strategies in global competition, and making the evaluation of Taiwan's supply chains more dependent on their respective shipping structures.

Energy and chemical mergers attract attention, Berkshire moves to drive chemical asset pricing imagination. Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B) agreed to acquire OxyChem, the petrochemical business of Occidental Petroleum(OXY), for $9.7 billion in cash, Berkshire's largest deal since 2022. The market pays attention to the capital allocation and chemical cycle trend after the completion of the transaction, and evaluates the linkage effect on the pricing of upstream energy and downstream materials.

New national defense creations attract gold, and Silicon Valley forces challenge the traditional military industry landscape, and the subject matter is heating up. The rise of "new generation of prime contractors" such as Anduril Industries and Palantir Technologies(PLTR) is relying on software and automation advantages to win defense budgets, boosting interest in high-growth, asset-light military models. Traditional contractors are facing pressure from the pace of bidding and technology to be accelerated, and the volatility of defense technology stocks has increased.

Game industry transactions are facing new variables, and the return on investment and player experience are seeing a seesaw. Foreign news reported that Electronic Arts may develop in the direction of privatization and assume approximately US$20 billion in debt. Changes in its capital structure may cause operations to focus more on high-margin content monetization and subscription mechanisms. Although it is beneficial to financial indicators, its acceptance by players is unclear. Information related to Electronic Arts(EA) affects the overall game industry evaluation method, and the market waits and sees follow-up corporate governance and product strategies.

Pharmaceutical stocks face policy headwinds, new tariff structures may reshape the profit landscape. Discussions on the Trump administration's policy of imposing a 100% tariff on branded and patented drugs are heating up. The gross profit of innovative pharmaceutical companies and multinational pharmaceutical companies may be under pressure, and generic drugs and companies with local supply chain advantages have the opportunity to benefit relatively. Investors are concerned about the acceleration of pricing power, payment negotiations and supply chain localization, and internal differences in health care stocks have widened.

Spillover effects on international stock markets continue, European stocks have created differences between Asian stocks, and the AI ecological chain is positive. Europe's Stoxx 600 index continued to record high, indicating that global risk appetite is not limited to U.S. stocks; the Asia-Pacific market was mixed. Japan's Hitachi's share price once soared by more than 9% due to the announcement of a partnership with OpenAI, driving the imagination of generative AI in manufacturing and enterprise IT introduction. Space, providing positive spillover signals to the AI supply chain.

Futures and pre-market trading become thermometers, and volume, energy and gap range affect opening pricing. The trends of the three major index futures have attracted more attention under the intertwined data vacuum and news. Pre-market quotes and turnover on technology, electric vehicles, national defense and pharmaceutical topics can reflect the shift in capital weight. The market also pays attention to whether large equity stocks experience profit-taking pressure to judge the rhythm of group rotation after the opening.

Raw materials and exchange rates are still the underlying variables, and the strength of oil prices and the US dollar affects the relative performance of industries. Volatility in energy prices affects the cost structure of aviation, transportation and chemicals, and the trend of the US dollar affects the conversion of overseas revenue of multinational technology and pharmaceutical companies. Although no key data has been released, funds are still risk-calibrated based on real-time quotes and corporate information. In the short term, they may show the characteristics of "stable index and differentiated ethnic groups."

Changes in the structure of the private equity market have attracted attention, and the trend of retail investors has brought new challenges in pricing and liquidity. Institutional investors have expressed concern about the influx of high-net-worth funds into private equity products, fearing that valuation distortions and pressure on redemption mechanisms are detrimental to long-term capital allocation. Although it is not the main theme of the market, this trend affects the cost of venture capital and the financing environment of innovative enterprises, and has a potential impact on the medium-and long-term technology and biotechnology investment ecosystem.

Conclusions and focus points, short-term risk appetite is stable, transparent and strong, and trading trends focus on news differentiation. Investors are concerned about three directions: one is the time point for the progress of the government shutdown and the recovery of subsequent official data on the job market; the other is whether AI equity stocks and the semiconductor chain will continue to have the relative strength; and the third is the catalysis of industry news, including Tesla's delivery of follow-up orders. Visibility, valuation spillover from Berkshire Chemical mergers and acquisitions, and the implementation of details of the pharmaceutical tariff policy. Overall, high-end shocks in the index have become normalized, and the parallel of stock selection and risk control has become the mainstream operating rhythm.