[U.S. Stocks Before the market] Expectations for interest rate cuts heat up, futures rose slightly and gold prices hit high (2025.09.16)

Interest rate cuts and retail sales are the main line, and market sentiment is too high

Before the market in Taiwan time on Tuesday, U.S. stock futures rose slightly. The S & P and Nasdaq continued to be higher after hitting a record closing high in the previous trading day. The market focus was on the Federal Reserve meeting and retail sales in August. Gold prices continue to hit new highs, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield is close to recent monthly lows, indicating a shift in allocation of funds in response to rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The sentiment among technology leaders and AI supply chains continued, coupled with TikTok's announcement of the progress of the "framework agreement", related stocks were active before the market.

At the beginning of the Federal Reserve Committee meeting, the core of decision-making and personnel changes attracted both attention

The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve Board took place, and the market generally expects that the decision announced early tomorrow morning Taiwan time will start a cycle of interest rate cuts. The U.S. Senate has just approved President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran as a director, and the Court of Appeals has allowed current director Lisa Cook to temporarily remain in office pending the outcome of the lawsuit over the replacement dispute. Recent weak employment data and uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on inflation have made policymakers inclined to adjust policy interest rates in the face of signs of economic slowdown.

Retail sales slowdown is expected to rise, and consumption resilience faces testing

The August retail sales report is expected to grow 0.3%, slowing from 0.5% in July. The report's results will provide key clues to consumer momentum in the third quarter and help identify how tariff and price factors are reflected in inflation and corporate revenue through end demand. If the data is lower than market expectations, it may strengthen the combination of short-term interest rate cuts and low long-term interest rates; if it is higher than expectations, the market's assessment of economic resilience will be adjusted to more neutral.

Futures continue to rise and the bond market is stable, while gold and bitcoin co-cash funds are safe and risky.

S & P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose slightly before the market, while the 10-year U.S. bond yield rebounded slightly but remained close to its low since April, and demand for fixed-income assets remained. International gold price futures hit US$3,730 per ounce, hitting a record high, and Bitcoin was around US$115,000, indicating that funds were deployed at the same time as safe-haven assets and high-volatility risk assets, reflecting a mixed interpretation of interest rate cuts and the liquidity environment.

Large-scale technology continues to lead the gains, with the index setting another record and waiting for the implementation of policies

The previous trading day, the S & P 500 reached the 6,600-point closing level for the first time. Nasdaq continued to hit highs. The European Stoxx 600 rose 0.42% in line with global risk appetite. Historical experience shows that the impact of interest rate cuts on the stock market depends on whether the reason is precautionary or forced by economic pressure. Investors continue to evaluate the nature of this round of interest rate cuts and its implications for the earnings cycle in the coming year.

TikTok reports framework agreement, Oracle strengthens before the market

Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) surged sharply before the market after market reports pointed out that the company's participation in a corporate alliance could lead to a framework agreement for TikTok to operate in the United States. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States and China have reached a "framework" on TikTok, and the two heads of state are expected to meet later this week to discuss details. If things go well, medium-term uncertainties in the cloud and adtechnology supply chains are expected to decrease.

The news of electric vehicles and AI supply chains is positive, and the momentum of scientific and technological power is not stopped

Tesla's (TSLA) share price strengthened after CEO Musk added $1 billion in the open market, and its decline narrowed during the year. The market value of Alphabet(Alphabet, GOOGL) exceeded US$3 trillion. It joined Vitek, Microsoft and Apple. The AI layout and antitrust litigation progress have jointly boosted the evaluation. Nvidia's demand continues to be supported by large cloud orders, and the AI accelerator supply chain sentiment continues to be optimistic.

The division of catering and leisure intensifies, Dave and Buster fall

Dave & Buster's(PLAY) shares fell before the market after reporting that earnings fell short of expectations, highlighting the divergence of disposable consumption during high interest rates and the increased sensitivity of catering and leisure and entertainment stocks to ticket prices, passenger flow and promotions. Retail sales data and corporate inventory and discount strategies for the fourth quarter have become the key to the short-term visibility of this class of stocks.

Information on policy and regulatory changes heats up, and discussions on the frequency of earnings reports resume

President Trump proposed the idea of changing corporate financial reports from quarterly to semi-annual, believing that it would help reduce costs and allow management to focus on operations. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said it is actively studying relevant ideas. If policy issues ferment, they may have an impact on the pace of corporate information disclosure, the rebalancing mechanism of index passive funds, and the pattern of short-term fluctuations.

In terms of pre-market trading and funds, equity stocks drive the popularity of transactions

Pre-market volume is concentrated in large technology and policy-themed stocks, with Oracle and Tesla among the top. Index futures provide support for risk appetite, but high gold prices and low long-term yields suggest that funds still maintain a parallel allocation of defense and growth. If retail sales and the Fed statement both favor loose narratives, there is a chance that the risk premium of growth stocks will remain low.

Macro-combination signals, delicate balance between interest rate cuts and economic slowdown

The cooling of the labor market, the directional decline in inflation and the changes in tariffs have caused the market to bet on a policy shift, but more evidence is needed for corporate response to slowing demand. If the data confirms a "moderate slowdown", the market will support the valuation with earnings resilience; if the slowdown is significant, the pricing of defense and high-quality assets will be favored. The Fed's dot chart, statement wording and the balance between medium-term growth and inflation released at the chairman's press conference will be key interpretations from the end to the next day.

Spillover effects in international markets, oil and gold migration intertwined with geopolitics

The abundance of European stocks, the strong U.S. debt and the wait-and-see trend of the U.S. dollar keep cross-asset volatility in a neutral range. Although there are limited changes in the oil price and US dollar index today, geopolitical and trade policy issues may still amplify market demand for safe-haven assets at any point in time. Investors continue to pay attention to the progress of U.S. -China high-level meetings and related negotiations as indicators of uncertainty for assessing supply chain risks and cross-border investment.

Today's focus is on the three major axes that affect the opening performance

First, the actual growth rate and sub-item structure of retail sales in August. Second, pre-Fed market pricing and bond market response to the range and path of interest rate cuts. Third, news from TikTok and large technology stocks faces the intensity of risk appetite. Overall, the short-term is still a market trend in which policy and data resonate. Weight-value technology continues to be a leading indicator for many parties, and the high gold price reminds that funds have not exited the allocation of downside risks.