[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Risk appetite rebounds, futures and risky assets rise together (2025.10.06)

Futures rise simultaneously, and the shadow of the government shutdown remains

U.S. stock futures were higher in the evening in Taiwan time, as investors focused on the U.S. government's suspension of negotiations while chasing risky assets. S & P 500 futures rose about 0.3%, Dow Jones futures rose 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%, continuing the strength of Dow Jones and S & P hit record highs last week. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose slightly to about 4.16%, indicating that interest rate expectations are still being weighed in by the market. Overall risk sentiment has improved, but the policy and data vacuum period may intensify intraday fluctuations.

The shutdown continues, disrupting the release schedule of key economic data

The U.S. government shutdown has continued, many businesses of the Department of Labor have been suspended, and the September non-farm payrolls report, which the market had originally scheduled to focus on, has been shelved. The economic signal has turned into a gap in the short term. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House's National Economic Conference, said that if negotiations stall, federal employees may face large-scale unpaid leave, which will impact public spending and private confidence. The data window allows investors to rely more on real-time market price signals to adjust positions and increase their sensitivity to interest rates, exchange rates and commodity movements.

Yields rise moderately, interest rate expectations affect valuations

Amid the uncertainty of the government shutdown, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose to around 4.16%, indicating that the market remains cautious about the subsequent policies of the RSC and the trajectory of inflation. Valuations of high-weight growth stocks are more sensitive to changes in interest rates, with the Nasdaq Futures Index leading the gains before the market, reflecting investors 'short-term bets on the continuation of technological momentum. However, any sudden upward movement in the interest rate curve may become a variable that suppresses evaluations and capital risk-taking.

Data vacuum and policy signals affect the trading rhythm this week

With important employment data delayed, the market focused on clues that may be released by Fed officials 'conversations and summaries of meeting minutes, as well as the potential impact of the progress of fiscal negotiations on financial conditions. Last week, U.S. stocks closed high, but Friday's late correction showed that long and short battles were still in place, and investors 'reaction to the risk of a single event may be amplified. Short-term trading rhythm is expected to be dominated by policy headlines and corporate news.

Bitcoin and gold hit high together, hedging and configuration dual momentum

Bitcoin stood above $124,000 in mid-session and hit an all-time high of more than $125,000 over the weekend, up more than 50% from its April low of about $80,000. Gold futures prices simultaneously hit a high of US$3,950 per ounce, reflecting the need to allocate funds to fight inflation and diversify risks when the US dollar weakens and policy uncertainty heats up. The combination of risky assets and safe-haven assets rising at the same time highlights the simultaneous pull-up effect of liquidity and thematic funds on different assets.

OPEC increased production slightly, and oil prices stabilized to support the energy market

OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same amount as in October, lower than the expansion feared by some markets, and oil prices rose accordingly. Crude oil futures rose about 2% near US$62 a barrel, while Brent futures hovered around US$65. Limited supply growth and demand resilience expectations provide pre-market support for energy stocks. However, if oil prices continue to rise, downstream cost pressures such as shipping, aviation and chemicals need to be continuously evaluated.

Ultramicro soared, AI capital expenditure catalyzes semiconductor differentiation

Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) is up by about 25%. The company announced a partnership with OpenAI to build 6GW of computing power using ultra-microchips. The first batch of 1GW deployment is scheduled for the second half of 2026. The market is regarded as a new wave of catalyst for AI infrastructure investment, and benefits extend to upstream manufacturing and key component supply chains. In contrast, Nvidia(NVDA) fell about 2% before the market, indicating that funds have rotated and re-evaluated within the AI hardware supply chain.

Tesla warm-up event, affordable car imagination draws attention

Tesla(TSLA) shares rose more than 2% in pre-market trading as the company released an October 7 event forecast. Market interpretations may involve lower-priced models in the U.S. market. Converted to October 8, Taiwan time based on the time difference, the approaching event will increase the popularity of transactions. Tesla's previous better-than-expected delivery of cars in the third quarter, coupled with reports that it was considering launching a more people-friendly version of Model Y for the China market, added to the imagination of product line expansion.

U.S. stocks hit highs and tested back, and technological momentum continues to play the role of the wind

After Dow Jones and S & P closed at all-time highs last week, short-term backtests provided a window to observe the life of funds. Pre-market technology equity and semiconductor themes led the gains, becoming the key to driving overall risk appetite. If interest rates and oil prices rise simultaneously, the tug of war on growth and cyclical stocks may intensify, and the performance gap in the sector will widen.

International situations are intertwined, and trends in Asia and Europe affect opening sentiment

The performance of Asian and European stock markets before the opening of U.S. stocks continued to affect U.S. stock sentiment. There has been a new leadership candidate for Japan's ruling party, and the outside world has interpreted that fiscal expansion and easing may continue. The reaction of funds to the yen and Japanese bonds is worth noting. In Europe, observations on energy prices and terminal demand will affect the evaluation of manufacturing and export stocks in the region, which will then be fed back to U.S. stocks through cross-border supply chains.

The US dollar is weak, and asset allocation rebalancing is accelerating

The weak dollar once boosted the performance of precious metals and digital assets, and also reduced exchange rate headwinds for U.S. exporters. If the US dollar continues to weaken, raw materials and emerging market assets may benefit, and the rebalancing effect of funds will spread across assets and markets. For U.S. stocks, the exchange impact of companies with a high proportion of foreign exports needs to be assessed together with changes in costs.

Pre-market trading observation, futures index leads the opening tone

The Dow Jones, S & P and Nasdaq futures all rose, providing a positive tone for spot opening. Pre-market stocks concentrated on AI and electric vehicle-related themes, indicating that themed funds were active. The immediate trend of U.S. bond yields, oil prices and the U.S. dollar are still the three major variables that affect the pace of early trading.

Today's attention, policy progress and corporate news fluctuate around

Investors are focusing on any progress in the U.S. government shutdown negotiations and the linkage of energy prices to inflation and interest rate expectations. From the corporate perspective, the developments related to Ultramicro and Tesla have attracted the most attention, with the semiconductor supply chain and the electric vehicle ecosystem becoming the focus of observation. Overall, with policy uncertainty and a rebound in capital risk appetite, there are more pre-market signals but higher volatility risks, and the trading rhythm will be driven by headlines and single events is more obvious.