[U.S. stocks before the market] Bauer's speech is about to rise slightly, and the news of technology stocks is divided (2025.08.22)

Futures rose slightly shortly after Bauer's speech, and the market focused on the pace of interest rate cuts and the direction of wording. Before Federal Reserve Chairman Bauer delivered his annual keynote speech in Jackson Hole at 22 o'clock in Taipei time tonight, U.S. stock futures rose moderately, Dow Jones futures rose slightly by about 0.3%, and S & P and Nasdaq futures also rose slightly. After the S & P's five consecutive black spots overnight, pre-market risk sentiment stabilized slightly, but individual stocks faced divisions: Nvidia(NVDA) reported that H20 chip production in the China market had stopped and fell before the market;Meta Platforms(META) and Alphabet(Google parent company, GOOGL) reported a US$10 billion cloud agreement that boosted the sentiment of large clouds and AI;Intuit (INTU) forecast was conservative and under pressure. The 10-year yield rate on U.S. bonds has limited changes, oil prices have risen, gold prices have fallen, and Bitcoin has risen slightly.

Interest rate path guidance has become a core variable in the market, and Bauer's speech has triggered expectations for interest rate cuts during the year.

Jackson Hole has always been an occasion to clarify the Fed's long-term policy framework. Outside attention has been paid to how Powell balances risks between still high inflation and signs of cooling employment. The Trump administration has recently increased its pressure on interest rate policy, and it has been reported that the Justice Department has launched an investigation into Governor Lisa Cook, which has brought the central bank's independence under review. This conversation may involve inflation target assessment and employment measurement methods, and the details of the wording may easily trigger immediate reactions from the bond market, the US dollar and growth assets.

Futures and commodities are moving moderately, and asset prices wait for a signal before pricing.

Dow Jones futures rose slightly before the market, while S & P and Nasdaq futures rose slightly simultaneously; the yield on the 10-year bond bond did not change much, reflecting the market's tendency to reduce position risk before Bauer's talks. Crude oil futures rose and gold futures fell, indicating a slight decline in risk aversion appetite, and Bitcoin rose moderately in digital assets. Overall, risky assets are on the sidelines before important policy events.

The weakening of risk appetite in the previous trading day continued, with major U.S. stock indexes closing lower and Asian and European stocks performing differently.

The S & P 500 fell 0.4% yesterday, writing a five-game losing streak. Dow Jones and the Nasdaq index fell. Europe's Stoxx 600 was almost flat, and the market responded coldly to the US-European tariff arrangements. Asian stocks performed mixed this morning, with Japanese stocks falling slightly due to higher-than-expected core inflation, indicating that the region is still cautious about interest rates and economic prospects.

Cloud and AI capital expenditure momentum is still there, and the cooperation between Alphabet and Meta has a bright spot before it is completed.

According to reports, Meta Platforms(Meta, META) and Alphabet(Google parent company, GOOGL) have reached a six-year cloud service agreement of at least US$10 billion, focusing on supporting AI infrastructure;Meta also uses cloud resources from Microsoft(MSFT) and Amazon(AMZN). The news drove Alphabet up more than 1% before the market, and Meta also rose slightly, highlighting the trend of large platforms continuing to increase AI investment and supporting the medium-and long-term demand for servers, cloud and AI ecosystem.

Uncertainty in market supervision in China is heating up, and the call to stop Huida H20 chips has attracted attention.

Foreign news pointed out that Huida asked suppliers to suspend the production of H20 chips for the China market because Beijing allegedly warned local companies to avoid adopting them on safety grounds. It is reported that Samsung Electronics, Riyue Light's Anke Technology, and Hon Hai have all been notified. H20 could previously be sold to China with US approval, but 15% of China-related revenue must be allocated to the US government. The news sent Vitek down about 1% before the market, reflecting the pressure of geographical and regulatory variables on the visibility of AI hardware demand.

Financial reports on tax and software indicators for small and medium-sized enterprises are conservative, and financial guidance is lower than market expectations.

Intuit (INTU) announced adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 of US$2.75, and revenue increased by 20% year-on-year to US$3.83 billion, both better than expectations; however, the company expects revenue for the quarter to increase year-on-year by 14% to 15%, which is lower than the market consensus of about 16.2%. The outlook for earnings per share for the next quarter and the full year is also weaker than analysts 'estimates, with a pre-market drop of about 6.5%. Against the backdrop of a weakening market, growth stocks have become more sensitive to forward-looking guidance, and short-term fluctuations have intensified.

US and European tariff details and industrial reaction differentiation, European pharmaceutical companies have not seen significant relief.

The United States and Europe announced some tariff arrangements, with a 15% tax rate on automobile imports to the United States and a 15% drug tariff cap. However, European stocks and pharmaceutical stocks did not rebound significantly, indicating that investors still have reservations about the implementation of policies and the impact on profits. On the trade front, India and Russia have promised to deepen bilateral trade and plan to expand India's exports to Russia to balance the imbalance; in addition, India has promoted major tax reform before October. Market interpretation will help domestic demand and consumption to partially offset the impact of US tariffs, and the global supply chain has reappeared. The signal of rebalancing.

The popularity of AI industry news remains unabated, and the market pays attention to the competition relationship between platforms and models.

Foreign news revealed that Elon Musk approached Mark Zuckerberg earlier this year to seek cooperation in raising funds in the approximately US$97.4 billion OpenAI acquisition. Although this transaction has not been completed, it highlights the deepening strategic interaction between large technology platforms, cloud providers and AI model companies. Relevant news may continue to affect emotions and valuation logic.

Today's focus on time points and potential fluctuations windows, Bauer's conversation is the main topic at night.

The speech at 22 o'clock in Taipei time tonight is a long-term framework communication occasion for the central bank. The market will interpret whether the assessment of inflation and employment has shifted, as well as hints on the timing and pace of interest rate cuts. The simultaneous changes in interest rate futures pricing, yield curve and the trend of the US dollar may determine the rotation of asset performance from after-hours to the next day.

Before the market, focus on individual stocks and stocks. AI cloud, semiconductors and software are moving forward in the three lines but the trends are different.

In terms of individual stocks, Alphabet was boosted by large orders in the cloud, while Meta rose slightly; Huida was dragged down by variables in China, and Caijie weakened due to pressure on its outlook. In terms of subject matter, the continued expansion of AI capital expenditures and regulatory risks coexist. Energy stocks may be affected by the trend of oil prices, and the precious metals chain is suppressed by the fall in gold prices. Overall, policy messages are the most critical variable today. Investors focus on Bauer's words on the logical guidance of interest rate prospects, and the short-term market is mainly event-driven.