Hong Kong stocks new| Can the IPO of the "first-generation Internet celebrity" Green Tea Group be launched?
Hawk Insight
2025-05-08 12:46:33
1.98W
Following the listing of Xiaocaiyuan in 2024, Green Tea Group has become the second casual Chinese food brand to enter Hong Kong stocks.
1. Company Profile Green Tea Group Co., Ltd.(referred to as "Green Tea Group") is a well-known casual Chinese catering chain in China. It was founded by Wang Qinsong and Lu Changmei on the bank of Xizi Lake in Hangzhou in 2008. The brand was inspired by their exploration of integrated catering when they ran youth hostels in their early years. As a representative of the "first-generation Internet celebrity" restaurants, green tea takes "high cost performance + integrated dishes" as its core competitiveness, focusing on the people-friendly route with per capita consumption of 50-80 yuan. Signature dishes include "Green Tea Roast Chicken" with annual sales of more than 10 million copies. and "Bread Temptation".As of the end of 2024, Green Tea Group has 489 direct-sales restaurants across the country, covering 21 provinces, 4 municipalities directly under the Central Government and Hong Kong. It plans to add 563 new stores from 2025 to 2027, aiming to exceed the scale of 1,000 restaurants. 2. Core data 1. Key IPO information a. Issuance arrangement: IPO will be held from May 8 to 13, with 168 million shares on sale globally (10% in Hong Kong/90% in international) at a price of HK$7.19 per share. The admission fee per lot of 400 shares will be approximately HK$2905. It is expected to be listed on May 16. b. Fundraising purposes: approximately HK$746 million net will be used to expand stores (563 new stores are planned to be added from 2025 to 2027), build central ingredient processing facilities and upgrade IT systems. c. Cornerstone lineup: Attract 8 institutions including Ziyan Food and Huabao Flavors to subscribe, with a total amount of US$87.33 million. Zheshang Shen Guojun plans to subscribe for 14 million shares. 2. Financial performance and growth potential a. Revenue growth: From 2022 to 2024, revenue increased from 2.375 billion yuan to 3.838 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.1%; net profit jumped from 17 million yuan to 350 million yuan, and the net profit margin in 2024 reached 9.1%. b. Store expansion: As of the end of 2024, there are 489 stores nationwide, and 120 stores will be opened in 2024. It is planned to add more than 180 stores annually in the next three years, increasing the share of the sinking market to 32%. c. Market share: In 2024, it ranks fourth in terms of revenue (0.7% share) and third in terms of number of stores in China's casual Chinese catering market. 2. Highlights & Advantages 1. Brand accumulation and model innovation a. The "first-generation Internet celebrity" gene: In 2008, Hangzhou's first store was launched with "high cost performance + integrated dishes". The annual sales of the signature dishes "Green Tea Roast Chicken" and "Bread Temptation" exceeded 10 million copies. b. Supply chain optimization: The central kitchen covers 70% of dishes pre-processed, and the proportion of ingredient costs will drop to 32.5% in 2024 (the industry average is about 35%). 2. Market opportunities and competitive barriers a. Track dividends: The size of China's casual catering market will reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024 and is expected to exceed 1.8 trillion yuan in 2027. The growth rate of second-tier and below cities will surpass that of first-tier cities. b. Capital help: After Xiaocaiyuan's listing in 2024, Green Tea Group has become the second casual Chinese food brand to land in Hong Kong stocks, which may trigger a reshaping of the sector's valuation. 3. Shortcomings and disadvantages 1. Operating indicators under pressure a. The turn-over rate declines: from 3.30 times per day in 2023 to 3.00 times per day in 2024, and the customer unit price drops from 61.8 yuan to 56.2 yuan. b. Regional imbalance: Guangdong and North China market revenue decreased by 6.38% and 11.44% year-on-year in 2024, relying on East China (revenue accounted for 29%). 2. Public opinion and compliance risks a. Controversy over prefabricated vegetables: In 2024, it was revealed that prefabricated vegetables were not explicitly used and products such as "Buddha Jumps Over the Wall" were removed. The China Securities Regulatory Commission inquired about the transparency of the supply chain. b. Food safety: Relying on third-party suppliers to process signature dishes, the quality inspection system needs to be strengthened to cope with post-market supervision upgrades. 4. Valuation & Subscription Conclusion 1. Valuation benchmarking a. The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is about 15 times, which is lower than Xiaocaiyuan (20 times PE) and Ninety-nine cents (30 times PE). The price-to-sales ratio (PS) of 0.8 times is also lower than the average level of 1.2 times for the Hong Kong stock catering sector. b. Short-term catalyst: cornerstone investors subscribe 55.57%(including Ziyan Food, Huabao Essence, etc.), superimposed on the recent recovery of Hong Kong stocks (average increase of 10% on the first day of 2025Q1). 2. Subscription scoring and strategy a. Comprehensive score: 5/10 (purchase carefully) b. Advantages: Reasonable pricing (issue price of HK$7.19), green shoe mechanism protection, and track recovery expectations. c. Risks: Sponsor Citi/CMB International has a high break rate in historical projects (the break rate of nearly 10 orders exceeds 50%), a decline in efficiency of single stores, and pressure to cash out old stocks. d. Winning rate: It is expected to be relatively high. ⏬⏬点击查看绿茶集团招股书全文，获取完整财务模型与风险披露 Full text of green tea international prospectus.pdf Special note: Catering stocks are significantly affected by seasonality and the pace of consumption recovery. They need to pay attention to the climbing efficiency of Q2 new stores and summer catering consumption data. (This article summarizes the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's announcements and industry research reports. The data is as of May 8, 2025 and does not constitute investment advice) Friends who are considering opening up a new account but have not prepared an account can add WeChatˇ At present, the Tiger New Year event can collect 1800 Hong Kong dollars of wool, Hong Kong stocks can be used for new cash, zero fees, and zero interest on financing. Interested parties can hurry up and get on the bus
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