On August 18, JPMorgan Chase released its latest research report.

Research reports show that JD's investment loss in the takeout business in the second quarter reached 13 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous forecast of 10 billion yuan.This result prompted JPMorgan Chase to significantly increase Alibaba's third-quarter loss forecast, from the original 17 billion yuan to more than 30 billion yuan.Meituan's profitability is also believed to face downside risks.

It can be seen from JD's second-quarter financial report that takeout has become the main driving force for the rapid growth of revenue in its new business segment, with revenue in this segment increasing by nearly 200% year-on-year.But at the same time, losses also expanded sharply, from 700 million yuan in the same period last year to 14.8 billion yuan.This means that in the process of seizing market share, subsidies and investments far exceeded previous market estimates, and the intensity of competition and capital consumption were at a high level.According to calculations by JPMorgan Chase, JD's average loss per order in the second quarter was about 10 yuan, and this figure can be used as an industry reference.

Based on JD's actual performance, JPMorgan Chase made a deduction on Alibaba's future investment.Even if Alibaba's average loss per unit is controlled at about half that of Jingdong, if it maintains an average order size of 70 million orders per day, its loss in a quarter may exceed 30 billion yuan.This figure is much higher than the market's previous expectations, indicating that take-out has become a key sector under pressure on Alibaba's profits in the short term.

The strategic paths of the three companies have been significantly divided.Due to limited financial flexibility, Jingdong may take the lead in gradually withdrawing from the price subsidy war in the third quarter.JPMorgan pointed out that this move will help improve JD's fourth-quarter earnings forecast, and its adjusted earnings per share may more than double the market consensus forecast.Alibaba is expected to continue to invest in further promoting user activity and ecological synergy through takeout and flash shopping.Some third-party research also pointed out that after Taobao increased its takeout subsidies, its platform's daily activity and offline turnover improved, showing the strategic value of takeout in strengthening user stickiness.

The challenges faced by Meituan are relatively complex.As the long-term leader of the industry, Meituan has enjoyed almost exclusive access to the main profits of the takeout industry in the past few years, but when the subsidy war unfolded in full swing, its original advantages were weakened.JPMorgan believes that changes in industry structure will not only reduce the average order value, but may also compress the overall profit pool.If profit margins and market share shrink at the same time, Meituan's share price may come under continued pressure.Market research shows that consumers are becoming more sensitive to prices driven by subsidies, and this change in behavioral patterns may affect the industry's profit model in the long run.

From an industry perspective, competition in China's takeout market has entered a deep stage.Subsidies and high investment have driven order growth in the short term, but the profit model is still unclear.According to forecasts from several international consulting organizations, instant retail, as an extended market for takeout, will continue to expand in the next few years. However, under the highly competitive landscape, the time for profit redemption may be delayed.As a result, takeout tracks have gradually become an area that tests corporate strategic determination and capital endurance.

According to JPMorgan Chase's forecast, the financial impact of takeout flash purchases from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025 is:

Jingdong: 13.5 billion yuan, 14.4 billion yuan, 9.45 billion yuan

Alibaba: 5.6 billion, 16.9 billion, 16.1 billion

Meituan: 2.7 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, 3.7 billion yuan

From a more macro perspective, competition in China's takeout industry is forcing capital markets to reassess their long-term valuation models.In the past, Meituan relied on takeout and local lifestyle businesses to obtain stable cash flow and became a star company in the Hong Kong stock market.But now, when the overall profit pool of the takeout industry has been diluted, the original profit logic is no longer valid.JPMorgan's research report revealed a cruel reality: if the industry's loss pattern cannot be reversed in the next few quarters, the capital market will inevitably systematically reassess relevant companies.

A deeper concern lies in changes in consumer behavior.Analysts say continued price subsidies may solidify users 'expectations of low prices, leading to user loss when subsidies are reduced.This phenomenon has become common in Southeast Asia and Indian markets, and is now beginning to appear in China.In the long run, this not only weakens the platform's space to increase ARPU (average revenue per user), but may also drag down the value creation capabilities of the entire industry.