On September 5, according to CME's latest interest rate futures data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has reached 99.4%, while the probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged is only 0.6%.This significant shift not only reflects the market's concerns about the U.S. economic slowdown, but also shows the market's almost unanimous expectation of a shift in monetary policy stance.

Signs of adjustments in the Fed's policy path have first emerged in economic data over the past few months.

The growth momentum of the U.S. economy has slowed down significantly, and the labor market has begun to show signs of fatigue.The non-farm payrolls report added only 73,000 jobs in July, one of the lowest levels since the epidemic, and market expectations for August were not optimistic.Most economists expect only 75,000 new non-farm jobs in August, and the unemployment rate will rise slightly to 4.3%, setting a new high since 2021.Against the background of rising unemployment and slowing wage growth (expected to fall from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year), the weakness of the labor market will become a direct catalyst for the Fed's policy shift.

It is particularly noteworthy that the uncertainty of current employment data is becoming the focus of market attention.Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that if the number of new jobs is less than 40,000, or the unemployment rate rises significantly to more than 4.4%, the probability of the Federal Reserve directly cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting will be greatly enhanced.At the same time, if the number of new non-agricultural workers exceeds 130,000 and the previous value is revised upward, expectations for interest rate cuts may be weakened.However, judging from the judgment of many investment banks and research institutions, the possibility of the latter occurring is significantly low, and the market is psychologically prepared for weak data.

Market uneasiness is not only reflected in the data itself, but also in personnel changes at the institutional level.Last month, after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics encountered dissatisfaction from the White House for releasing weak employment data, President Trump immediately replaced the director and nominated conservative economist E.J. Anthony to take over.The behavior raised concerns in financial markets about the statistical independence of government intervention.Analysts such as Bloomberg and CNBC pointed out that behind the appointment, the statistical method may be deliberately revised to reserve space for aggressive monetary policy.As a result, the Fed's policy independence has once again been questioned, making investors more cautious when pricing future monetary policy paths.

From a global perspective, the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut will undoubtedly affect sensitive nerves in the international market.The US dollar index has continued to be under pressure in the near term, in part because the market has almost fully priced interest rate cuts in September.Malaybank believes that even though France, the United Kingdom and Japan face their own internal economic uncertainties and may support the US dollar in the short term, if the US non-agricultural data weakens further, the US dollar's trend will inevitably be under pressure.The repricing of capital flows and relative rates of return on currencies is profoundly affecting the cross-asset allocation pattern.

The gold market has responded positively to this in advance.

As of September 5, the London gold spot price rose to US$3546/ounce, while COMEX gold futures prices exceeded US$3600/ounce, setting the largest weekly increase since mid-June, with a weekly increase of nearly 2.9%.The continued expansion of net long positions in gold ETFs and COMEX reflects the market's enthusiasm in allocating safe-haven assets.Wang Xiang, manager of the gold ETF of Bosera Fund, said that the strong rebound of gold in the past week is behind the repricing behavior of Western financial investors in the context of doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Judging from the analysis of capital structure, last year and the first quarter of this year, the main force driving the upward trend of gold prices came from Asian central banks and local investors.The current stage of rise relies more on net long positions in European and American institutional investors and derivatives markets.If gold prices continue to strengthen, it will in turn attract passive following funds from Asian markets, form positive feedback, further pushing up the price center.

Although gold performed well, not all assets benefited from it.There are obvious signs of diversion in the equity market, with some investors reconsidering the risk and return of stock assets against the background of falling bond yields.Technology stocks and cyclical stocks appear to be more vulnerable in this round of policy games, while defensive sectors and high-dividend stocks have gained relative favor.Changes in investor behavior also indicate that risk appetite is being re-priced, which has been reflected in the trend of U.S. stocks over the past few trading days.

More broadly, the Federal Reserve's policy of sharply raising interest rates in 2022-2023 has indeed successfully suppressed inflation, but its side effects are gradually emerging.The credit market is tightening, corporate financing costs are rising, pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises to lay off employees is increasing, and real estate market activities are shrinking...…These phenomena are collectively constituting the reason for the Fed's policy reversal.Although inflation has not yet fully fallen back to the target level of 2%, against the background of rising economic growth risks, the Federal Reserve has begun to weigh the dual goals of "stabilizing prices" and "promoting employment", and the subtle change in the policy tone has become obvious.

According to Wall Street surveys, most large investment banks and economic research institutions believe that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 1-2 times during the year and maintain low interest rates until 2026 to boost economic recovery momentum.At the same time, some views point out that in the current context of expanding fiscal expenditures and approaching an election year, the Fed's "independence" will be tested more in reality and pressure.Especially as Trump gradually returns to a high position in polls, market concerns about the "instrumentalization" of monetary policy cannot be ignored.