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US Facing Negative Impact Under EU Monetary Policy

The intensification of monetary policy divergence between Europe and the United States may have some adverse effects on the U.S. economy.

US Facing Negative Impact Under EU Monetary Policy

The U.S. economy has shown signs of slight weakness, while the European economy is gradually rebounding, potentially leading investors to shift towards British equities and U.S. bonds, especially considering market expectations for loose monetary policies. However, this situation may have certain adverse effects on the U.S. economy.

Furthermore, the strength of the U.S. dollar may also negatively impact the exports of U.S. multinational corporations. In contrast, the measures of interest rate cuts implemented in Europe will stimulate expenditure growth, alleviate inflationary pressures, and boost the bond market and export business.

Following the press conference by the Bank of England on Thursday, May 9th, it is widely anticipated in the market that the UK may implement interest rate cuts in June, with a probability of 0.48 for rate cuts. Additionally, Sweden and Switzerland have already begun cutting interest rates, and the European Central Bank has also hinted at similar measures in June.

According to estimates by Eurostat, the core inflation rate has decreased from 2.9% in March to 2.7%, while the inflation rate for the entire eurozone is currently stable at around 2.4%. It is expected that the inflation rate will remain at this level for the remainder of the year and fall to the target level of 2% in 2025, providing support for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates at the next meeting in June.

However, despite the short-term optimism that European monetary policy may bring to the market, overly dovish policies may also put pressure on the European Central Bank to make adjustments in the future, especially against the backdrop of still uncertain global inflation paths.

Compared to Europe, U.S. monetary policy may be more conservative. The Federal Reserve may maintain a high-interest-rate policy for a longer period, hence market expectations for interest rate cuts are lower. This has also led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, which has risen by 4% since the beginning of the year. However, the United States still faces inflationary pressures, which may limit its ability to follow Europe's interest rate cuts in the short term.

European stock and bond markets have performed optimistically, with significant increases in the UK's FTSE 100 index and the European Stoxx 600 index. Meanwhile, the exchange rates of the pound and euro against the dollar have also been affected, showing a trend of depreciation.

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