Market analysis

美国上周五公布 7 月零售销售，月增 0.5%（前值：0.9%；预期：0.5%），在亚马逊（AMZN）Prime Day 刺激加上汽车销售强劲，即使前值上修至0.9%，月增率仍达0.5%，符合市场预期，显示消费力道具韧性。同时，川普与普丁的会谈激发市场对俄乌战争可望降温的期待，使美股开盘延续前一日动能。然而，美股早盘公布的 8 月密大消费者信心却意外下滑，指数由 61.7 降至 58.6，低于市场预期的 62.0；一年期通膨预期升至 4.9%，五年期通膨升至 3.9%，显示 8 月关税调升后，停滞性通膨阴霾再现。消息一出，美股自历史新高拉回，三大指数收盘涨跌互见，标普、道琼、纳指波动有限，但费城半导体指数大跌约 2.3%。类股方面，医疗保健最为突出。市场关注波克夏（BRK.A）在第二季度买进联合健康医疗（UNH）500 万股，带动股价飙升近 12%，并推升亚培（ABT）、Elevance（ELV）齐扬。礼来（LLY）宣布在英国大幅调高 GLP-1 药物价格后股价上涨 2.5%，进一步带动娇生（JNJ）、默克（MRK）同步走强。金融股则因通膨预期升高，市场降低对联准会降息与殖利率走陡的预期，整体承压下跌逾 1%，包括摩根大通（JPM）、富国银行（WFC）、美国银行（BAC）、高盛（GS）与摩根士丹利（MS）全数收黑。资讯科技类股受半导体拖累，表现疲弱。应材（AMAT）虽公布优于预期的业绩，但 FY26Q4 营收指引仅 67 亿美元，远逊于市场预期，股价重挫近 12%，连带拖累科磊（KLAC）、科林（LRCX）大跌。川普再提对半导体进口课征 300% 关税，使超微（AMD）、博通（AVGO）、辉达（NVDA）等齐跌，连带苹果（AAPL）、Cisco（CSCO）也受压。相对抗跌的则是软体股，赛富时（CRM）因获评级上调大涨近 4%，并带动甲骨文（ORCL）、ServiceNow（NOW）走扬。 

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general manager Daryl

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a low point in August, rising inflation expectations disrupted market sentiment

Consumer confidence in the United States fell unexpectedly in August, mainly due to increased public concerns about the impact of inflation and import tariffs. According to data released by the University of Michigan, consumers are generally pessimistic about future price trends and purchasing environment. Short-term and long-term inflation expectations have risen simultaneously, and their willingness to purchase durable goods has hit a new low in a year. This shows that inflation risks have begun to actually depress U.S. household consumption and may affect economic momentum in the fourth quarter.

• 消费者信心下滑
  密西根大学消费者信心指数自7月的61.7下降至8月的58.6，远低于市场预期，为年内新低。

• 通膨预期同步升高
  1年期通膨预期自4.5%升至4.9%，5至10年期长期预期也自3.4%升至3.9%。

• 关税效应推升价格预期
  消费者普遍预期进口商品价格将因新关税而上涨，进一步加剧物价上行压力。

• 耐久财购买条件恶化
  因价格高涨，耐久财购买条件评价大跌14%，创过去12个月最低水准。

• 消费动能恐持续转弱
  价格压力与信心下滑可能导致消费延后，对美国内需复苏构成风险。

 

U.S. retail sales grew 0.5% in July, with automobiles and e-commerce boosting performance but consumer momentum still worrying

The strong performance of retail sales in the United States in July was mainly due to car demand and promotional activities by retail giants such as Amazon (AMZN) and Wal-Mart (WMT). However, a weak labor market and rising prices of imported goods may dampen consumption momentum in the third quarter. Core retail sales rose 0.5%, maintaining positive growth after adjustment for inflation, indicating that household spending is still resilient, but the continued decline in consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations are casting a shadow on consumption performance in the coming months.

• 零售销售月增0.5%
  7月整体零售销售增长0.5%，汽车销售成长1.6%，亚马逊与沃尔玛促销活动刺激电商销售上扬0.8%。

• 核心零售表现稳健
  扣除汽车、燃料、建材与餐饮的核心零售销售亦成长0.5%，支撑GDP中的消费支出项目。

• 促销推动但类别表现分歧
  服饰与家具销售均走高，但建材、家电与餐饮支出下降，反映部分品类受价格上升或需求转弱影响。

• 进口价格上涨支撑通膨预期
  进口物价7月上涨0.4%，其中消费品价格上扬，显示关税成本转嫁至消费者仍在发酵。

• 消费信心续降牵动支出风险
  密西根大学调查显示8月消费信心续降，购买耐久财意愿降至一年新低，恐冲击第四季消费力道。

 

industry

US data center operators call for maintaining green energy subsidy rules to meet electricity demand in the AI era

On behalf of technology giants including Google, Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), the U.S. Data Center Alliance (DCC) wrote to the U.S. Treasury Secretary calling for maintaining current wind and solar subsidy rules. Industry operators pointed out that if the new regulations block renewable energy projects, it may affect the surge in electricity demand in the AI and digital economy, and in turn weaken the United States 'competitiveness in the global technology industry. The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce the latest subsidy guidelines on August 18, which is of great concern to the industry.

• 科技巨头齐声施压财政部
  DCC敦促财政部长Bessent维持既有补贴认定规则，避免新增行政障碍影响绿电建设进程。

• 补贴政策攸关AI时代基础建设
  DCC强调，能源专案若遭延宕，将直接冲击AI与云端服务扩张所需的稳定电力供应。

• 川普行政命令导致政策转向
  总统川普于7月签署行政命令，要求收紧「开工认定」标准，引发产业对补贴门槛提高的疑虑。

• 太阳能扩张恐减少60GW
  根据Clean Energy Associates预估，若实施新规，至2030年恐流失高达60GW的太阳能建设量。

• 数据中心经济影响力巨大
  2017至2023年间，美国数据中心产业对GDP贡献达3.5兆美元，并创造逾60万个工作机会。

 

The EU's adherence to digital norms has triggered a delay in US-EU trade statements, and digital services law has become a new point of contention

The trade agreement originally scheduled to be reached between the United States and the European Union in July has been due to differences in rules, and the release of the final statement has been postponed. The EU refuses the United States to regard its Digital Services Act (DSA) as a non-tariff barrier and insists on maintaining the bottom line of supervision over large technology platforms. This dispute caused the United States to delay the announcement of an executive order to reduce EU vehicle import tariffs, and trade negotiations once again reached a deadlock. Although the two sides have avoided expanding the tariff war, digital sovereignty has become the focus of a new round of game.

• 数位规则成谈判焦点
  欧盟坚持不修改《数位服务法》，反对美方将其列为非关税壁垒，成为声明延迟主因。

• 美方关切科技公司营运成本
  华府认为DSA对美国科技企业构成负担，影响言论自由与营运灵活性，争取保留谈判空间。

• 降关税政策受阻
  原预计8月15日宣布的欧盟车关税自27.5%降至15%行政命令被延后，待联合声明出炉后实施。

• 协议避免全面贸易战
  双方7月协议已将原拟30%的关税减半至15%，成功避免爆发全面贸易冲突。

• 数位服务法为欧盟监管里程碑
  DSA要求大型平台更积极管理非法内容，是欧盟维护线上秩序与用户权益的重要法规。

 

stocks

Meta reorganized its AI department for the fourth time in six months, making every effort to consolidate AGI and data center layout

Meta (META) plans to adjust the organizational structure of its AI department for the fourth time within six months and continue to strengthen the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This reorganization will divide "Superintelligence Labs" into four sub-teams, covering products, infrastructure and long-term research, demonstrating that it attaches great importance to AI strategy. In order to support the huge computing needs, Meta has launched a data center financing plan of approximately US$29 billion and expects capital expenditures to reach hundreds of billions of dollars in the next few years.

• AI部门再组改造架构
  Superintelligence Labs将拆分为四组，包括未命名实验室（TBD Lab）、Meta AI产品团队、基础设施与FAIR研究单位。

• 全面投入AGI竞赛
  执行长马克・祖克柏加速推进AGI计划，目标开发超越人类思考能力的AI系统，重塑Meta未来现金流来源。

• 研发成本与人力资源激增
  公司为延揽AI人才开出高额薪资，并上调2025年资本支出预测下限至660亿美元，显示扩张决心。

• Llama 4表现失利促改革
  先前推出的Llama 4开源模型市场反应不佳，加上高层离职潮，促使公司进一步重组AI策略。

• 资料中心扩建融资达290亿美元
  Meta正与PIMCO及Blue Owl Capital合作，为路易斯安那州资料中心建设筹措资金，支撑AI运算需求爆发成长。