Market analysis

美国 7 月生产者物价指数（PPI）月增率自上月的 0.0% 加速至 0.9%，远高于市场预期的 0.2%；年增率达 3.3%，较前月的 2.3% 明显加快，也高于市场预期的 2.5%。相比本周稍早公布、相对温和的 CPI，PPI 的强势显示企业正在消化大部分关税成本，即便消费者尚未感受到显著通膨，通膨已全面渗透经济体系，影响企业成本。劳动市场则依旧稳健，截至 8/9 当周，首领失业金申请人数为 22.4 万人，略低于前周的 22.7 万人；连续申请失业金人数从 196.8 万人降至 195.3 万人。经济数据公布后，市场降息预期降温，美股早盘开低。联准会官员释放谨慎讯号，圣路易联准银行总裁 Musalem 表示，现在就决定下月是否降息为时过早；里奇蒙联准银行总裁 Barkin 则指出，7 月美国消费环境已改善，将关注即将公布的零售销售数据。不过美股最终仍收复失土，标普微涨 0.03%，除罗素 2000 下跌超过 1.2% 外，其余主要指数几乎收于平盘。类股表现方面，金融板块领涨，摩根大通（JPM）上涨 1.2%、富国银行（WFC）上涨 2.0%、美国银行（BAC）上涨 1.0%。医疗保健类股由礼来（LLY）大涨 3.6% 领军，公司在英国大幅上调减肥药价格，提振收入成长预期。非必需消费类股受亚马逊（AMZN）走高 2.9% 带动，市场看好其全方位杂货配送服务。工业股走弱，Deere（DE）下挫 6.8% 因下调年度销售预测承压。科技股整体持平，Cisco（CSCO）财测稍低于预期，惟股价开低走高，小跌 1.6%；Coherent（COHR）虽财报优于预期，但出售业务后股价重挫近 20%。英特尔（INTC）受美政府考虑入股消息激励大涨 7.4%。应用材料（AMAT）财报优于预期，但未来营收指引不及市场，盘后摔 14%。 

Quick view of financial report

The downward revision of applied materials forecast triggered a sharp fall in stock prices, with China's demand and export restrictions as the main negative

Although Applied Materials (AMAT)'s third-quarter earnings performance exceeded market expectations, its share price fell more than 13% after hours due to its pessimistic fourth-quarter revenue and profit outlook. The company faces multiple challenges from slowing demand in the China market, U.S. export restrictions and global trade policy uncertainty. Even if we expand cooperation with Apple to produce equipment, it will still be difficult to offset the overall operating pressure in the short term.

• Solid operating performance in the third quarter
  第三季营收达 73 亿美元，年增 8%，高于市场预估的 72.2 亿美元；每股调整后盈余为 2.48 美元，也优于预期的 2.36 美元，显示核心业务持续稳定。

• Fourth-quarter financial forecast fell short of market expectations
  公司预估第四季营收为 67 亿美元（±5 亿），每股盈余为 2.11 美元（±0.20），远低于市场预估的 73.3 亿美元与 2.39 美元，反映客户需求放缓与能见度下降。

• China market demand has slowed down significantly
  中国为应用材料最大市场，占总营收约 35%，但因当地晶片厂正消化既有产能，短期内减少对设备的投资，对整体营收构成压力。

• U.S. export restrictions affect sales prospects
  公司拥有大量待审的出口许可申请，但预估未来一季内不会有进展，限制了高阶设备对中国的出货潜力，进一步压抑营收成长。

• Increased policy and demand volatility
  宏观经济与中美贸易政策导致客户订单呈现非线性波动，特别是在先进制程领域，加重公司预测难度与市场压力。

 

John Deere's revised tariff impact is expected to be US$600 million, and the third-quarter profit decline of 26% annually has attracted market attention

Agricultural machinery manufacturer John Deere (DE) announced that although its third-quarter earnings report exceeded market expectations, its profit fell by 26% year-on-year due to rising tariffs and production costs, and revised its tariff cost forecast for the 2025 fiscal year to US$600 million. The company also lowered its high financial forecast for the whole year, indicating that global trade policy uncertainty is putting pressure on operations. Shares fell about 7% after the earnings report.

• Third quarter earnings better than expectations but a significant year-on-year decline
  John Deere 第三季营收达 103.6 亿美元，略高于预估的 103.1 亿美元；每股盈余为 4.75 美元，高于市场预期的 4.63 美元。但净利为 12.9 亿美元，较去年同期下滑 26%。

• Tariff costs are the main reason for profit pressure
  单季关税冲击达 2 亿美元，2025财年前三季已累积达 3 亿美元，公司预估全年关税前税影响将达 6 亿美元，较先前预测显著上修。

• The high benchmark of the annual financial forecast was lowered
  公司将全年净利预估区间维持在 47.5 亿至 52.5 亿美元，但调降上限，原先预估为 55 亿美元，反映对未来几季市场环境更为保守。

• Trade and commodity prices become uncertain risks
  高层指出，2026年需求充满变数，主因为全球农产品价格不如预期，加上贸易政策变动频繁，使农业设备投资信心受到影响。

• European and South American markets show signs of warming up
  公司表示虽面临逆风，但在欧洲与南美地区看到初步需求复苏的「绿色萌芽」，并对税制与贸易政策的未来走向持审慎乐观态度。

 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

U.S. producer prices soared to a three-year high in July, putting pressure on Fed interest rate cuts

The U.S. producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.9% month-on-month in July, the largest increase since 2022, well above market expectations of 0.2%. Prices of goods and services have risen, highlighting that inflationary pressures have not subsided. This data triggered market doubts about whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as scheduled in September. Although the White House believes that companies have not passed on the cost of tariffs to consumers, the market interpretation is biased towards renewed inflation risks and reducing the room for policy easing.

• PPI jumped sharply beyond market expectations
  7月PPI月增0.9%、年增3.3%，为2022年以来最大月增幅，核心PPI（月增0.9%）与排除食物、能源及贸易服务的指标（月增0.6%）同样显示价格上行压力强劲。

• Services and commodity prices both rose
  服务价格涨幅达1.1%，为主要推升来源，包括投资组合管理费上涨5.8%、饭店房价回升3.1%、航空票价上涨1%。商品方面，食品价格月涨1.4%，蔬菜与蛋类价格涨幅最显著。

• Market expectations for September interest rate cuts turn conservative
  PPI数据公布后，市场对联准会9月降息的信心由「几近确定」降至约90%。50基点降息几无可能，25基点成为较可能情境，但也需视后续PCE与就业数据表现而定。

• Tariff effects begin to be transmitted to inflation data
  分析指出，此轮PPI上涨与川普政府提高进口关税有关，企业逐渐无法吸收成本，开始向消费者转嫁，未来CPI恐也将受到影响。

• Data quality and stability of statistical institutions are questioned
  受预算削减影响，美国劳工统计局（BLS）停止发布约350项指数，并面临领导人事变动争议，外界忧心经济数据的准确性与政策制定的依据将遭影响。

 

The number of people receiving initial unemployment benefits fell last week in the United States, resulting in a deadlock in the labor market of "low layoffs, low hiring"

The latest number of people receiving initial unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 224,000, indicating that layoffs are still at a low point. However, due to weak domestic demand and tariffs, companies are still conservative in overall hiring activities. Although the Fed is under pressure to cut interest rates, service inflation and rising import costs may make the policy path more cautious. Economists expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% in August, reflecting a structural slowdown in the labor market.

• The number of people receiving initial unemployment benefits fell slightly
  上周初领失业救济金人数减少 3,000 人至 224,000 人，略优于市场预期的 228,000 人，显示裁员活动仍相对温和。

• The number of renewals is still high, reflecting weak hiring
  续领失业金人数下降至 195.3 万人，但仍处相对高档，显示尽管裁员不多，企业对新聘人力持保守态度，压抑整体劳动市场活力。

• The job market shifts to a low-layoff and low-hiring structure
  近三个月平均新增就业仅 35,000 人，创下低位，与初领数据形成反差，反映企业正因国内需求疲弱与政策不确定性转趋谨慎。

• Protectionist policies affect corporate employment strategies
  川普政府贸易保护政策推高进口关税，使企业面临更高成本压力，也影响对未来景气的信心，进而影响聘雇决策。

• Fed policy choices become more difficult
  虽市场预期 9 月降息机率高，但持续升温的服务业通膨与预期中的关税影响，使联准会必须在控制通膨与支撑就业间权衡决策。

 

Federal Reserve presidential candidates advocate sharp interest rate cuts, with Zervos and Sumerlin becoming the focus of market attention

As the Federal Reserve Chairman's term is about to expire, a number of potential successors have publicly expressed support for a sharp interest rate cut, including Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos and former White House economic adviser Marc Sumerlin. Both advocated an immediate 50 basis point rate cut in response to slowing inflation and a weak labor market, and believed that current monetary policy was too tight. The move not only triggered a reassessment of the policy path by the market, but also highlighted the tension between political and monetary policy independence.

• Zervos supports half-code interest rate cuts and advocates excessive tightening of monetary policy
  Jefferies的Zervos重申应在9月会议中采取更积极行动，主张即使面对PPI上升，通膨战已进入尾声，Fed应专注于预防劳动市场恶化。

• Sumerlin: 50 basis points cut is "no suspense choice"
  前小布希政府经济顾问Sumerlin表示，当前利率结构与经济疲弱状况支持快速降息，强调此举不会对市场造成干扰，并证实已被白宫列入候选名单。

• Under pressure from Trump, candidates tend to relax their stance
  总统川普不断施压联准会降息，曾表示希望降息最多300个基点，Zervos则认为降息200点合理。市场认为白宫对人选有明显政策偏好。

• Market participants call for increased market sensitivity in monetary decisions
  Zervos指出，美国货币政策应纳入更多具有市场经验的决策者，而非仅由学术派主导，以更准确反应经济与市场动态。

• Fed independence is the focus, the future path remains to be seen
  Sumerlin强调货币政策须保持独立性，即使面对来自总统的公开批评，也应坚守对人民负责的专业立场，凸显未来Fed人事与政策将牵动市场走势。

 

industry

AI craze boosts the gold attraction of technology stocks, and hedge funds increase the number of Huida and U.S. stock giants in the second quarter

Driven by the wave of AI investment, large U.S. hedge funds significantly increased their holdings of technology giants and AI-related stocks in the second quarter of 2025 to make up for the reduction in positions in the first half of the year due to inflation and tariff uncertainty. Wall Street capital cities such as Bridgewater, Tiger Global, and Discovery Capital have all expanded their positions in NVDA, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, indicating that market confidence has rebounded. Some funds have also been transferred to medical insurance and Latin American markets to seek decentralization.

• Bridgewater significantly increases AI core equity stocks
  该基金第二季将辉达持股增加154.5%至7.23百万股，成最大单一持股部位（约11.4亿美元）。并同步增持Alphabet与微软，持股金额分别达9.87亿与8.53亿美元。

• Discovery bets on Meta and Latin American market growth potential
  Discovery加倍持有Meta (META) 股份，并新增辉达支持的云端业者CoreWeave (CRWV)。同时也看好美洲移动 (AMXB.MX) 的区域潜力，将其持仓扩大至约9,500万美元。

• Tiger Global once again embraces the "Seven Heroes" and AI hardware stocks
  第二季购入约400万股亚马逊，总持仓达2.34亿股；并加码Alphabet、辉达、微软与Meta。此外，亦布局AI设备供应商Lam Research (LRCX)，持股市值达5.12亿美元。

• Coatue is betting heavily on new AI platform and chip supply chain
  新增持股Arm与Oracle，持仓市值分别为7.5亿与8.43亿美元。并扩大对CoreWeave的布局至2.9亿美元，强化云端AI基础建设投资。

• Medical insurance stocks become highlights of non-technology allocation
  UnitedHealth (UNH) 虽年初至今股价下跌46%，但Lone Pine、Discovery与Berkshire Hathaway等机构于第二季逆势加码，反映其长期价值与反向操作策略。

 

stocks

Berkshire's new layout shows a shift in investment strategy, minus Apple and betting on United Health and Construction Shares

Berkshire Hathaway significantly adjusted its investment portfolio in the second quarter of 2025, reducing its largest stake in Apple (AAPL) and adding new investment in United Health (UNH). It also added U.S. housing market-related stocks such as DR Horton and Lennar. This series of operations reflects Berkshire's cautious attitude towards technology stocks and its optimism about the medium-and long-term value of medical care and real estate, driving the stock prices of relevant stocks to rise after hours.

• United Health becomes Berkshire's new favorite
  波克夏新建仓5.04百万股联合健康股票，市值约15.7亿美元。虽该公司因调查、成本上升及高层意外过世导致股价年内大跌46%，但波克夏此举被视为对其长线基本面投下信任票。

• Apple's shareholding decreased but did not withdraw fully
  第二季出售2,000万股苹果股票，使其持仓降至2.8亿股。这是自2024年第三季以来首次减码，虽不代表全面撤出，但显示对估值或集中风险的重新考量。

• Add stocks in the housing market and construction sectors
  波克夏新增持股DR Horton (DHI) 与显著增持Lennar (LEN)，表明对美国住宅需求仍具信心。也新增钢铁公司Nucor (NUE) 与建筑五金商Allegion (ALLE) 的持仓。

• Streamlining communications and financial investment positions
  波克夏减码美国银行 (BAC) 并清空T-Mobile (TMUS) 的持仓，调整在金融与通讯领域的曝险结构，专注在更具防御性或长期价值的产业。

• Cash level reaches a new high, renewal of conservative style
  虽新增多档个股，但波克夏第二季整体净卖出股票约30亿美元，连续第11季为净卖方，期末现金与等值资产达 3,441 亿美元，显示仍维持保守资产配置策略。

 

Starboard adds nearly 50% of Salesforce's stake to restart pressure on governance reform

Well-known activist investment institution Starboard Value significantly increased its shareholding in Salesforce (CRM) in the second quarter of 2025, increasing its stake by nearly 50%, indicating that the institution still has strong expectations for Salesforce's operating efficiency and profit potential. The move was interpreted as a possible resumption of pressure on Starboard to reform corporate governance and cost structure. At the same time, the fund also adjusted other positions, including increasing Pfizer (PFE) and reducing Autodesk (ADSK).

• Salesforce once again increased its holdings in sales to show its intention to exert pressure
  Starboard将Salesforce持股从84.9万股增至130万股，增幅近50%。虽然该公司股价2023年曾大涨近100%，但今年以来已下跌近30%，反映市场对其转型与获利仍有疑虑。

• In the past, the reform effect was limited, pressure or restart
  自2022年底起，Salesforce曾面临多家激进投资人施压，导致董事会与策略出现调整，但多数投资人已在2023年中退出。Starboard的回归，可能预示新一轮改革要求。

• Pfizer reflects long-term optimism
  Starboard持有辉瑞股份增加10.5%至850万股，距离其2024年揭露的10亿美元持股计划未久，显示该机构仍看好该制药巨头的潜在表现与改善空间。

• Subcode Autodesk adjusts its technology investment layout
  Starboard减持Autodesk持股约27%，该公司此前与Starboard达成和解协议，显示该笔投资已完成阶段性策略目标，资金可能转向其他高潜力科技标的。

• Aggressive investment style continues to maintain influence
  尽管13F资料为过去资讯，Starboard的持股变动仍受到市场密切关注，其投资行动经常被视为潜在企业改革讯号，对股价与公司策略具备实质影响力。

 

Rumors have it that the Trump administration plans to invest in Intel to promote U.S. chip autonomy and AI manufacturing expansion

According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is discussing with Intel (INTC) about allowing the U.S. government to take a stake in the company, a move that is seen as further intervention in industries with strategic national security value. This news inspired Intel's share price to rise by more than 9%, indicating that the market expects government support to help Intel reverse its disadvantage in the field of AI chips and wafer foundry in recent years. Although details of the deal have not yet been finalized, it could be a major turning point in U.S. semiconductor policy.

• Rumors of shareholding drive stock prices soaring
  消息曝光后，英特尔股价当日上涨逾7%，盘后再涨2.6%。市场认为若获政府直接资金支持，将有助强化资本支出并重建竞争优势。

• Rebuilding foundry and AI chip ambitions
  英特尔近年积极发展晶圆代工，但成本高企且尚未吸引大量外部客户。公司警告若无新客户，可能退出晶片制造业务。此次潜在政府入股有望改变策略困局。

• CEO faces political and market pressure
  执行长陈立武（Lip-Bu Tan）近期遭川普点名，因其涉及中国科技投资。尽管如此，他仍获邀与川普会晤并就投资案进行讨论，显示双方互动持续密切。

• Government strategy shifts to strengthening manufacturing autonomy
  川普政府近年推动晶片与稀土战略资产国产化，此前也与辉达 (NVDA) 及MP Materials有资金合作案例。此次针对英特尔的提案延续该战略主轴。

• Markets and analysts remain cautious
  尽管英特尔年营收仍超过500亿美元，部分投资人质疑是否真需政府援助。但分析师指出，若配套以关税或政策诱因，对吸引客户使用其制程具关键作用。

 

Oracle and Google Cloud have partnered to integrate the Gemini model to expand enterprise AI application layout

Oracle (ORCL) announced a cooperation agreement with Alphabet's Google Cloud (GOOGL) to integrate Google's Gemini generative AI model into Oracle's cloud platform and business applications, covering corporate finance, human resources, supply chain and other fields. This cooperation not only expands the penetration of Google's AI model in the enterprise market, but also strengthens Oracle's strategic positioning to provide multiple AI solutions to counter market pressure from Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon AWS.

• Gemini model launches Oracle cloud platform
  双方合作让开发者可透过Oracle云端存取Google Gemini模型进行文本、影像、影音等AI生成任务，借由Vertex AI平台完成串接。

• AI capabilities will be built into Oracle enterprise applications
  使用Oracle ERP、HR与供应链软体的企业可选择以Gemini模型为AI引擎，提升商业流程的智慧化与效率。

• Oracle expands AI strategy to adopt open model
  与先前与xAI的合作类似，Oracle持续拓展第三方AI模型接入，强化客户选择权，而非仅推自家AI技术。

• Google expands cloud market share through cooperation
  Google透过此协议将其AI能力扩展至Oracle企业客户群，有助挑战微软与AWS在企业AI云端服务的主导地位。

• Transaction details are not disclosed and a unified payment mechanism is adopted
  Oracle客户可用原有云端点数支付Gemini模型使用费用，但未透露双方是否有分润或授权费机制。