Market analysis法国总理巴伊鲁宣布 9/8 将举行信任投票，工会也在 8/29 发动全国大罢工，进一步加深市场对欧洲政治风险的担忧。加上乌俄战争持续带来不确定性，上周五欧洲股市全线下跌并连带拖累美股期货在欧洲时段走低。另外，美国 7 月核心 PCE 通膨月增率持平于 0.3%，年增幅度虽较前值 2.8% 提升至 2.9%，但符合预期，缓解市场对通膨恶化的担忧。个人消费支出月增率自 0.4% 加速至 0.5%，个人所得月增率亦从 0.3% 升至 0.4%，皆符合预期，反映经济动能仍在。数据公布后，美股期货跌幅明显收敛，开盘仅小幅低于平盘。由于 8 月主要指数均有显著涨幅，基金经理人在月底进行再平衡交易，叠加 9/1 劳动节假期前市场观望情绪，导致美股开盘后迅速下探并于低档震荡至收盘。终场主要指数均收跌，其中费半跌幅最大。类股方面，戴尔(DELL)财报不佳拖累美超微(SMCI)，并影响辉达(NVDA)、博通(AVGO)、超微(AMD)等全面下挫；非必需消费品中，特斯拉(TSLA)因法律与销售利空摔 3.5%，但福特(F)、通用(GM)表现相对抗跌。医疗保健类股受惠防御资金轮动上涨，AbbVie(ABBV)、娇生(JNJ)、默克(MRK)、联合健康医疗(UNH)普遍收红。 

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Maywell's financial forecast fell short of expectations, and its stock price fell 18% causing market doubts

Mervel Technology's (MRVL) share price fell 18% after announcing its latest earnings report, mainly because data center revenue fell short of expectations and the growth outlook for its AI chip business appeared weak. Although revenue hit a new high in the second quarter, with growth reaching 58%, investors were suspicious of the conservative financial forecast for the third quarter and the volatility of cloud customer demand, causing a negative market reaction.

Although Maiwell's AI chips and customized silicon solutions still have potential, their short-term growth momentum is limited. Coupled with analysts 'downgrades and target prices, it remains a challenge to maintain a 20% market share in the future.

• Financial performance was in line with expectations but difficult to restore confidence
  第二季营收达20.1亿美元，与市场预期一致；每股盈余为调整后67美分，也略高于预期。但由于第三季营收预估为20.6亿美元（正负5%），低于分析师预测的21.1亿美元，引发市场担忧。

• Data center revenue fails to meet standards
  资料中心部门营收为14.9亿美元，略低于市场预估的15.1亿美元。执行长指出云端客户需求出现「非线性成长」，导致订单波动，成为营收成长的阻力。

• AI chip demand outlook is conservative
  尽管AI需求仍在，但公司预期第三季成长持平，需等到第四季才会明显改善。分析师认为目前缺乏新客户细节与管线透明度，使其难以支持公司设定的20%市占目标。

• Analysts cut ratings and price targets
  美国银行将迈威尔评级由「买进」降至「中立」，并将目标价从90美元下调至78美元，理由是对AI业务中短期成长动能产生疑虑。

• The sharp decline in stock prices reflects the loss of market confidence
  公布财报当日迈威尔股价暴跌18.6%，收在62.87美元，显示投资人对其未来成长性的信心明显动摇。

Dell's AI server revenue forecast is revised upwards, but cost and competitive pressures have caused its share price to plummet 10%

Although Dell Technology raised its AI server shipment forecast and revised its full-year revenue, due to high manufacturing and transportation costs, as well as price competition from peers, the gross profit margin in the second quarter DELL short of expectations, dragging down its stock price in a single day. Falling nearly 10%. Markets are worried that profit margins will continue to be pressured, causing more than $8 billion to evaporate in market value.

Although the demand for AI infrastructure remains strong and attracts large customers including xAI and CoreWeave, Dell sacrifices profits to meet demand and may be difficult to gain investor recognition in the short term.

• Strong demand for AI servers, increased annual shipment expectations
  戴尔将全年AI伺服器出货预期由150亿美元调升至200亿美元，主要客户包括马斯克的xAI与云端服务商CoreWeave，反映AI基础设施需求快速增长。

• Gross profit margin is not as expected, and cost pressure is obvious
  第二季调整后毛利率降至18.7%，低于市场预期的19.6%，主因为供应链瓶颈与加速出货产生的额外费用，加上为争取大客户采取较激进的价格策略。

• Third quarter earnings outlook is lower than expected
  戴尔预估第三季每股盈余为2.45美元，低于市场预期的2.55美元，显示即便营收预估可达265亿至275亿美元，但获利能力仍面临挑战。

• Full-year revenue forecast revised upward, but market response is conservative
  全年营收预测由原本的1,010亿至1,050亿美元，上修至1,050亿至1,090亿美元。然而市场更关注盈余与毛利的下行压力，导致股价不涨反跌。

• The evaluation is still attractive, but confidence needs to be rebuilt
  虽然戴尔股价本年度已上涨16.3%，优于惠普 (HPE) 与标普500指数，但目前本益比仅13.2倍，反映投资人对AI基础设施成长的期待与对利润波动的谨慎并存。

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U.S. core inflation rose to 2.9% in July, hitting a half-year high, and the market is still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September

The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in July showed an annual growth rate of core inflation of 2.9%, setting a new high since February, in line with market expectations. Although inflation has picked up slightly, the Fed may still prefer to cut interest rates in September, as the risk of a weakening job market gradually becomes a policy focus.

Overall consumption and income data in July also performed solidly, showing that spending momentum among the American people is still there, partially alleviating concerns about inflationary pressures. The increase in service prices has widened, becoming the main driver of inflation.

• Core PCE inflation rose to 2.9% as expected
  7月核心PCE物价指数年增率升至2.9%，较6月上升0.1个百分点，月增率为0.3%，均符合市场预期。这是联准会首选的通膨指标，显示物价压力仍高于2%的政策目标。

• Consumption and income momentum is stable
  7月个人消费成长0.5%、个人所得成长0.4%，双双符合预期，反映即便面对物价上升，美国消费者支出意愿未见明显降温。

• Service prices have become the main force of inflation
  与去年同期相比，服务类价格上涨3.6%，远高于商品类仅0.5%的涨幅。能源价格年减2.7%，对整体通膨形成抑制作用。

• Market focuses on employment data and interest rate cuts opportunities
  尽管通膨偏高，但市场仍预期联准会9月将降息，关键在于就业市场是否进一步转弱。联准会理事Christopher Waller已表态支持降息，并视劳动市场变化决定幅度。

• Tariff policies continue to affect price structure
  拜登政府延续并扩大对进口商品的10%关税政策，也影响PCE结构与未来通膨走势，投资人需密切关注中美贸易政策发展。

industry

The United States withdraws exemptions for Samsung and SK Hynix's chips equipment, causing another impact on the semiconductor supply chain

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will revoke the exemption for Samsung and SK Hynix to use U.S. equipment when producing chips in China. In the future, these Korean companies will need to apply for an export license before importing relevant equipment. The measure will take effect within 120 days. This move is expected to limit its production capacity expansion and technology upgrades in China, and will have a negative impact on US semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as KLAC, AMAT, and LRCX.

Although the existing facilities are expected to be licensed to operate, the Korean government and industry are concerned about the stability of the global supply chain, and the market is also concerned about whether competitors such as China's local equipment manufacturers and Micron (MU) will benefit from this.

• Samsung and SK Hynix were withdrawn from export exemptions
  美国取消2022年给予韩国晶片商在中国使用美国设备的授权，未来需申请出口许可，限制其于中国扩产与升级设备。

• American equipment manufacturers bear the brunt
  科磊、应用材料、科林研发等设备商股价应声下跌，跌幅分别为4.4%、2.9%与2.8%，市场担忧对中销售受限将冲击营收。

• Existing production capacity can be licensed to operate, but expansion is prohibited
  美国表示将核发授权以维持现有设施运作，但不会批准新增产能或升级先进制程，明确划出科技管制红线。

• The South Korean and Chinese governments expressed opposition, US-South Korea consultations failed to reach consensus
  南韩产业部强调，中国业务对全球供应链稳定至关重要，将持续与美方协商。中国商务部则谴责此举并表明将采取必要反制措施。

• Micron and China equipment manufacturers may benefit
  业界分析认为，若美方未同步限制中国本土业者如长江存储 (YMTC)、长鑫存储 (CXMT)，反可能让中国企业抢占市场空缺，美光则可能在记忆体市场取得相对优势。

MongoDB, Pure Storage and Snowflake reported well, AI momentum helped corporate technology stocks rise sharply

As AI demand continues to penetrate into enterprise software and data infrastructure, technology companies such as MongoDB (MDB), Pure Storage (PSTG) and Snowflake (SNOW) reported good results this week, driving stock prices to rise strongly. These companies not only had better revenue and earnings than expected, but also demonstrated the substantial contribution of AI applications to business growth, showing that the market's confidence in the AI-implemented business model is gradually recovering.

Although the market has been worried in the past that AI will replace the value of some enterprise software, this week's performance proved that "AI not only eats software, it can also make software."

• MongoDB achieves best weekly gain in history
  MongoDB股价一周上涨44%，营收年增24%至5.91亿美元，远超市场预期，并新增逾5,000名客户，多为AI原生公司，反映其资料库平台已成AI应用落地关键基础设施。

• Pure Storage cooperates with Meta to set off stock price
  Pure Storage受惠Meta部署AI储存解决方案，股价单日大涨32%，创历史新高。公司上调全年财测，并指出其他超大规模云端客户亦表现浓厚兴趣，扩大其市场潜力。

• Snowflake AI users increase significantly, revenue exceeds expectations
  Snowflake宣布使用AI资料云的客户已达6,100家，较前季成长逾17%，近五成新客户选择AI功能。Q2财报与全年产品营收展望皆优于市场预期，股价飙升20%。

• Autodesk uses AI to improve productivity, confidence will not be replaced
  虽受制于历史包袱与投资人压力，Autodesk仍靠著「AI助理」与CAD AI引擎获得市场认可，股价上涨9.1%。执行长强调：「AI可能吃掉软体，但不会吃掉Autodesk。」

• AI dividends spread from chips to software application layers
  随著辉达 (NVDA) 成为全球市值最高企业，AI投资主题从硬体拓展至软体与储存层，象征AI应用正进入「企业规模化实作」新阶段，投资焦点也逐步转向下游应用端。

stocks

Google's advertising technology business is subject to EU antitrust sanctions, with moderate fines but a shift in regulatory trends

The European Union is about to issue a mild fine for Alphabet's Google (GOOGL) advertising technology business, ending a four-year antitrust investigation. Although the case accuses Google of favoring its own advertising services, the new EU Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera prefers to promote behavioral corrections rather than high fines, which is in sharp contrast to her predecessor Vestager's emphasis on deterrent heavy penalties.

The penalty did not force Google to split advertising assets such as AdX or DoubleClick, which also reflects an important turning point in the EU's regulatory strategy for big technology platforms.

• Advertising technology business involves unfair competition
  欧盟调查指出Google透过偏好自家广告平台（如AdSense与AdX），打压竞争对手及限制网站选择，违反市场公平竞争原则。

• New EU Commissioner turns moderate
  与过去对Google开出的43亿欧元Android垄断罚款相比，这次罚金相对温和，Ribera更重视行为调整，并强调与企业协商修正机制。

• No forced split of advertising assets
  尽管前任建议Google剥离部分广告业务，但Ribera未采纳此建议，并表示美国法院已排定9月针对类似案件的审理，可能影响欧盟后续行动。

• Google strongly refutes EU arguments
  Google重申市场竞争仍激烈，广告商与出版商选择多元，并指控欧盟对广告科技市场的理解有误。

• Advertising remains Google's main source of revenue
  2024年Google来自广告的收入高达2,646亿美元，占总营收75.6%，惟公司未单独揭露adtech子业务的具体数据。

Intel received US$5.7 billion in CHIPS funding in advance from the United States, and government shareholding attracted market attention

Intel (INTC) announced that it has revised its CHIPS Act funding agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce and obtained approximately US$5.7 billion in advance. At the same time, the U.S. government also obtained a potential stake in Intel of nearly 9.9%. This move will significantly increase Intel's flexibility in funding allocation and advance its advanced process and foundry expansion plans. The United States provided financial assistance in the form of shareholding, triggering market discussions on the future intervention model of the United States in the technology industry.

The overall CHIPS subsidy amount has reached US$11.1 billion, making it one of the largest cases currently.

• Advance allocation improves funding flexibility
  原定于未来阶段拨付的CHIPS资金，因协议修订得以提前入帐57亿美元，英特尔可更灵活配置用于晶片制造与先进封装项目，并已累计支出逾78.7亿美元于合规计划上。

• The U.S. government holds nearly 10% of its shares, arousing policy concerns
  协议中，美方获配2.746亿股英特尔股票，并有权在特定条件下额外取得2.405亿股，潜在持股达9.9%。这项持股安排被视为拜登与川普政府竞相推动「科技国安化」的新范例。

• Limit the use of funds and prohibit them from being used for dividends and repurchase
  虽放宽原定专案里程碑限制，但协议保留部分监管条款，包括禁止将补助资金用于发放股利、股票回购或在敏感国家扩张。

• Secure Enclave program expansion pending further funding
  英特尔已预留1.587亿股股票进入托管帐户，仅于美国进一步拨付Secure Enclave先进晶片专案资金后方可释出。

• The U.S.'s shift to "investment participation" strategy has far-reaching implications for the industry
  金额与持股比例皆创历史新高，反映美国政府对半导体自给与先进制程掌握的高度重视，也为其他企业未来争取补助资源立下新模式。