Before PCE data was released, the probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged in May was 92.3%
April 30 news, according to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 94.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 5.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut by 25 basis points is 60.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut by 50 basis points is 3.6%.
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