On July 22, the Central Bank Super Week is coming.In the next 10 days, major central banks around the world such as the United States, Japan, the European Union, and Canada will announce the latest interest rate decisions.

Will the EU cut interest rates and brake?Will the United States continue to maintain high interest rates?Will Powell be accused by Trump?Will the Bank of Japan's interest rate increase set off a global capital earthquake?For more information, Hawk Insight brings you an article.

US: Federal Reserve's independence is facing severe test from White House pressure

According to notes from previous interest-rate meetings, despite Trump's continued pressure to cut interest rates, there are significant differences in judgment within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the impact of tariffs: Directors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman believe that the price shock is temporary, implying that there is a possibility of interest rates being cut at the July meeting; and 7 of the 19 policymakers insist that interest rates should remain unchanged in 2025.

This divergence stems from the dual effect of tariffs on the U.S. economy-rising import prices can both push up the consumer price index (CPI) and drag down growth by curbing demand.June inflation data has shown a moderate rise in some commodity prices, but no trend signal has yet been formed, making the Federal Reserve more inclined to wait and see.As a result, there is a rift between market expectations and policy reality: the money market has fully absorbed the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut before October, but analysts believe that until the trade tax transmission path is clear, the Federal Reserve is only likely to implement a rate cut once in the fourth quarter throughout the year, which is significantly lower than the market forecast twice.

Europe: The tipping point for policy shift

The interest rate market expects that the bank will end its seven-consecutive meeting interest-rate cycle this week, choosing to sit tight for the first time and maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2%.

On the surface, this decision is waiting for the final implementation of U.S. tariffs on August 1, but in fact reflects its internal reassessment of economic resilience-the euro zone manufacturing PMI has rebounded for four consecutive months, and June's data hit a new high since August 2022.

However, the strengthening of the euro is becoming a new worry. European Central Bank Deputy President De Guindos warned that if the euro continues to appreciate, it will make policy formulation "more complicated": a strong currency not only suppresses inflation by lowering import prices, but also weakens European export competitiveness.

According to the latest forecast, eurozone inflation may fall to 1.6% in 2026, below the policy target.Against this background, ING Bank analyst Carsten Brzeski pointed out that further interest rates by the European Central Bank during the year are a "matter of time and magnitude". In September and December, interest rates may be cut by 25 basis points each, but the specific path depends on the actual intensity of trade frictions.

Japan: Political paralysis & high inflation, the Bank of Japan may suspend interest rates

After Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's recent election setback, Bank of Japan officials believe that there is no need to change the current policy stance of gradually raising interest rates.People familiar with the matter said that although central bank officials will closely monitor the government's subsequent fiscal policy direction, they still believe that as long as the economic outlook is in line with expectations, it is appropriate to continue to raise the Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate.

Sources pointed out that the policy committee may decide to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% at next week's meeting.At the same time, as trade talks between Tokyo and Washington are still ongoing, officials hope to carefully assess the possible impact of the agreement on inflation trends and the future economy before raising interest rates further.

Although the election results will not change the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory in the short term, some officials believe that if the government implements large-scale fiscal easing, it still needs to be aware of whether it will push up inflation risks.Due to the recent surge in rice and other food prices, inflation has grown faster than originally expected, and the central bank's internal vigilance against upside risks to inflation is gradually increasing.

Other countries: Canada may continue to cut interest rates, Brazil maintains the status quo

Emerging markets and resource-based economies are showing a divergence in the wave of interest rate cuts.

The Bank of Canada is expected to follow the pace of the euro zone to cut interest rates twice, while Brazil has chosen to maintain the status quo; East Asian economies that rely on exports to the United States are facing greater pressure, while domestic demand-led markets have relatively abundant buffer space.It is worth noting that the macro costs of tariffs are being quantified-Bloomberg Economic Research estimates that the current tariff rate will shrink the size of the U.S. economy by 1.6% in the next two to three years, and consumer prices will eventually rise by 0.9%.A more immediate risk comes from corporate inventory behavior. Analysts at HSBC warned that when companies run out of goods hoarding during the low tariff period, weaker retail sales and price jumps may appear at the same time.

Currently, financial markets have begun to price this policy restructuring.Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, observed that defensive assets are regaining the favor of funds, with high-quality bonds, blue chips and high-dividend infrastructure sectors becoming the focus of allocation under expectations of interest rate cuts.A more subtle game has emerged in the money market: the dollar has weakened due to Trump's attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve. If the euro zone takes the lead in cutting interest rates, this trend may be reversed, prompting investors to rebalance foreign exchange exposure.JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's warning suggests risks may be underestimated: "Unfortunately, I think there is complacency in the market," and the potential impact of supply chain disturbances and repeated inflation has not yet been fully reflected in asset prices.